A relegation six-pointer at the foot of the Ligue 1 table takes place on Saturday lunchtime as Nantes welcome Bordeaux to the Stade de la Beaujoire.
Both teams picked up a crucial three points in the relegation dogfight last time out, as Les Canaris thrashed Brest 4-1 while Bordeaux claimed a much-needed win over Rennes.
Match preview
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It quickly became evident which team had virtually nothing to play for when Brest welcomed Nantes to the Stade Francis Le-Ble, as Antoine Kombouare's side followed up their win over Strasbourg with a 4-1 thumping of the mid-table Pirates.
Moses Simon, Ludovic Blas, Imran Louza and Kalifa Coulibaly - ending a goal drought stretching all the way back to November 2019 - all made the net ripple before Romain Faivre's late consolation, but there is still work to be done if Nantes are to pull themselves to safety.
As things stand, Les Canaris occupy the relegation playoff spot in 18th - two points clear of Nimes but four adrift of 17th-placed Lorient - so no matter what happens when Les Merlus take on Lyon a few hours later, Nantes cannot rise out of the bottom three just yet.
However, after finally claiming back-to-back wins for the first time this season, Nantes have the wind in their sails before the visit of fellow strugglers Bordeaux, and Kombouare's side can also look forward to a meeting with already-relegated Dijon in gameweek 37.
Both of Nantes' recent wins have come on the road, though, and they have gone 14 games without a win at the Stade de la Beaujoire and 17 without a clean sheet home or away - both of which represent the longest of such unwanted records in the club's history.
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An eighth-minute red card to Steven Nzonzi set the tone for Bordeaux's game with Rennes early on, and Les Girondins only needed three minutes to make their extra-man advantage count, as young Sekou Mara was the quickest to react as he lashed home on the 11-minute mark.
There were no more goals to be had at the Matmut Atlantique as Bordeaux ended a torrid five-game losing run to halt Rennes' momentum under Bruno Genesio, and victory over Les Rouge et Noir was the perfect tonic for Jean-Louis Gasset after his side were placed into administration.
Off-the-pitch concerns aside, Bordeaux's win over Rennes saw them leapfrog Strasbourg into 15th place in the table, and with only three games left to play in the 2020-21 season, Bordeaux have opened up a five-point gap between themselves and the bottom three.
2021 has proved to be an annus horribilis for Gasset and co so far, but one more win should all but guarantee their Ligue 1 status for another season, although they travel to Nantes having lost six of their last seven away from home - the outlier in that run being a 3-1 success at whipping boys Dijon.
Bordeaux and Nantes played out a goalless stalemate in the opening game of the 2020-21 season, but Les Canaris have only claimed one win from their last 12 in Ligue 1 against Gasset's men - losing eight times in that dismal run.
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Team News
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Nantes defender Jean-Charles Castelletto lasted just 11 minutes of the win over Bordeaux before being taken off with a back problem, but the 26-year-old is serving a suspension this weekend anyway.
In Castelletto's absence, Andrei Girotto should fill the void in the heart of Kombouare's defence, while Charles Traore (thigh) is the only other injury concern for the hosts to work around.
After such a dominant showing against Brest, Nantes are expected to field an almost identical lineup on Saturday, with Randal Kolo Muani playing a little deeper in support of Coulibaly.
Bordeaux are also expected to keep changes to a minimum after snapping their losing run, but Jean Michael Seri returns from a ban to boost Gasset's options in the engine room.
Laurent Koscielny and Otavio continue to recuperate from Achilles injuries and are facing a race against time to be fit before the end of the season, while Nicolas De Preville is doubtful after missing out against Rennes.
Mara should continue to partner Hwang Ui-jo up top after his decisive strike in gameweek 35, while the young Tom Lacoux was trusted in midfield against Rennes and could find himself in the first XI again.
Nantes possible starting lineup:
Lafont; Corchia, Girotto, Pallois, Appiah; Chirivella, Louza; Blas, Kolo Muani, Simon; Coulibaly
Bordeaux possible starting lineup:
Costil; Kwateng, Mexer, Benito, Sabaly; Oudin, Lacoux, Adli, Kalu; Hwang, Mara
We say: Nantes 2-1 Bordeaux
Bordeaux's game with Rennes could have panned out a whole lot differently had Nzonzi not been sent for an early bath, but Gasset will give no thought to that as he aims to ensure Les Girondins' survival.
Nantes will remain in the bottom three whatever happens this weekend, but there is no better time for Kombouare to end his side's wretched home fortunes after back-to-back away wins, so we expect the hosts to take the spoils in this relegation scrap.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bordeaux win with a probability of 41.03%. A win for Nantes had a probability of 32.46% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bordeaux win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.64%) and 0-2 (7.27%). The likeliest Nantes win was 1-0 (9.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.
