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Paderborn logo
Bundesliga | Gameweek 33
Jun 20, 2020 at 2.30pm UK
Benteler-Arena
Borussia Monchengladbach logo

SC Paderborn
1 - 3
Borussia M'bach

Michel (54')
Sabiri (14'), Hunemeier (55'), Michel (86')
Hunemeier (65')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Herrmann (4'), Stindl (55' pen., 73')
Bensebaini (42'), Jantschke (52')

Preview: SC Paderborn vs. Borussia Monchengladbach - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between SC Paderborn and Borussia Monchengladbach, including team news and predicted lineups.

Top-four chasing Borussia Monchengladbach will be looking to make it back-to-back victories when they travel to already-relegated SC Paderborn on Saturday afternoon.

Gladbach cruised to victory over Wolfsburg in midweek and are one point off a Champions League spot, while defeat to Union Berlin brought an end to Paderborn's survival hopes.


Match preview

Borussia Monchengladbach manager Marco Rose pictured in February 2020© Reuters

Following successive defeats at the hands of Freiburg and Bayern Munich, it was important that Gladbach responded against seventh-in-the-table Wolfsburg on Tuesday night.

Respond they did thanks to a couple of Jonas Hofmann goals and one from Lars Stindl in a routine 3-0 win at Borussia-Park.

Bayer Leverkusen also returned to winning ways the following night, though, so the gap on the top four remains at one point with two games to go.

After taking on Paderborn this weekend, Marco Rose's side then play host to Hertha Berlin on the final weekend, while Leverkusen have Hertha and Mainz 05 to come.

It is a battle that will go right down to the wire, but one thing is clear - Gladbach cannot afford to drop points in this weekend's trip to Paderborn.

Paderborn's Sven Michel celebrates scoring against Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga on August 17, 2019© Reuters

Steffen Baumgart's side's one-season stay in the Bundesliga was officially brought to an end with a deserved 1-0 loss at Union on Tuesday.

The division's bottom side are winless in 13 matches either side of the three-month shutdown, a run that stretches all the way back to a 2-0 win at Freiburg in January.

They have taken just eight points all season at the Benteler Arena - the second-worst home return in the division - but Gladbach are three without a win on their travels.

No side has conceded more goals than the 68 Paderborn have let in, meanwhile, with their last two home matches ending in 6-1 and 5-1 losses to Borussia Dortmund and Bayern respectively.

Gladbach racked up a couple of goals in the reverse meeting - a 2-0 win in December - but will be looking for more this time around given the importance of goal difference.

Leverkusen are five goals worse off in that regard and, with just a point between the sides, it may well be that goal difference determines which of the two will compete in Europe's showpiece competition next season.

Paderborn's Bundesliga form: DDLDLL

Gladbach's Bundesliga form: LDWLLW


Team News

Borussia Monchengladbach's Marcus Thuram takes a knee after scoring on May 31, 2020© Reuters

Paderborn will be without Christian Strohdiek after the defender picked up a knock against Union last time out.

January recruit Dennis Srbeny started that midweek match on the bench but is set for a recall here, as are Sven Michel and Abdelhamid Sabiri after serving one-match bans.

Antony Evans is also in line for just a second Bundesliga start, with coach Baumgart possibly tempted to give fringe players a chance with his side's fate already known.

Gladbach have been rocked by the news that key man Marcus Thuram will miss their final two matches with a knee injury.

Fellow Frenchman Alassane Plea is also ruled out because of a groin issue that has likely curtailed his campaign.

In better news for Rose, Ramy Bensebaini is back from suspension and should return to the side at left-back.

Paderborn possible starting lineup:
Zingerle; Drager, Rumpf, Hunemeier, Collins; Holtmann, Ritter, Gjasula, Antwi-Adjei; Srbeny, Michel

Gladbach possible starting lineup:
Sommer;Lainer, Ginter, Jantschke, Bensebaini; Kramer, Neuhaus; Herrmann, Stindl, Hofmann; Embolo


Sports Mole Logo

We say: SC Paderborn 0-2 Borussia Monchengladbach

Unlike their opponents, Gladbach have it all to play for in this penultimate fixture of the season. The visitors returned to winning ways in midweek with an impressive victory and are strong favourites to come out on top at the Benteler Arena on Saturday.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Monchengladbach win with a probability of 61.26%. A draw had a probability of 19.6% and a win for SC Paderborn had a probability of 19.17%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Monchengladbach win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.11%) and 1-3 (7.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.59%), while for a SC Paderborn win it was 2-1 (5.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Monchengladbach would win this match.


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Bayern Munich players celebrate their late winner against Borussia Monchengladbach on June 13, 2020
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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Hannover127141610622
2SC PaderbornSC Paderborn125611914521
3Fortuna DusseldorfDusseldorf126331813521
4Karlsruher SCKarlsruher125522320320
5Hamburger SV125432617919
6Elversberg125432214819
7Nuremberg125342420418
8FC Koln125342420418
9Magdeburg124622017318
10KaiserslauternKaiserslautern124532018217
11Hertha Berlin125252020017
12SV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt124442623316
13Greuther Furth123451823-513
14Schalke 04Schalke123362124-312
15Eintracht BraunschweigBraunschweig123361424-1012
16Preussen Munster122551519-411
17SSV UlmUlm122461013-310
18Jahn RegensburgJahn12219532-277


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