New outfit Charlotte FC face a tough test this weekend, when they travel to Subaru Park where they will face Philadelphia Union, who are unbeaten at the start of the MLS campaign.
The hosts currently sit top of the Eastern Conference after collecting 10 points from a possible 12, while Charlotte sit in eighth, four points behind their opponents.
Match preview
© Reuters
Jim Curtin's side entered the international break in strong form, recording three consecutive victories after a 1-1 draw with Minnesota United on the opening day.
Last time out, Union travelled to face New York City and first-half strikes from Alejandro Bedoya and Daniel Gazdag secured a comfortable 2-0 win, despite the visitors seeing just 27% of the possession.
That was Philadelphia's second 2-0 win on the bounce, giving confidence to the back line also for keeping two clean sheets, which is something they will want to add to this weekend.
Their home form last season was a major contributor to their success, only dropping points in six games on their own patch, and that sort of form at Subaru Park will have to be replicated and bettered if they are to improve on their final position this year.
This is the first of three home games in April for Curtin's side, meaning that this month will be a good opportunity to stay ahead of the chasing pack in the Eastern Conference.
© Reuters
Charlotte have managed to fit in one more game than Philadelphia as they did not stop for the international break, meaning that their last outing came just one week ago.
That turned out to be a good day at the office for Miguel Angel Ramirez's side, who secured their first clean sheet of the season in a 2-0 win over Cincinnati, thanks to a brace from Karol Swiderski.
After a tough start to life in the MLS, with three consecutive losses to start the season, Charlotte have seemingly found their feet in the division, but will have to translate that into their away matches also.
This weekend's encounter is sure to be a tough test for the visitors, with Philadelphia in such good form at the start of this year, but they could dominate possession as Union tend to give up the ball to hit their opposition on the counter-attack, something Charlotte will have to be wary of.
- D
- W
- W
- W
- L
- L
- L
- W
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Philadelphia centre-back Stuart Findlay remains a doubt for the hosts, as he is currently recovering from a knee injury, but he is the only injury concern for Curtin.
Striker Julian Carranza, who is on loan from Inter Miami, returned to the starting 11 last time out after serving his one-match suspension, having been sent off against Montreal at the beginning of March.
Cory Burke came into the side in place of Carranza and bagged himself a goal against San Jose Earthquakes, but the latter is expected to retain his position in the starting 11.
Kamil Jozwiak is still waiting to make his debut for Charlotte having arrived at the club from Derby County with an injury, and Vinicius Mello is in the same position after joining the club from Internacional.
Young midfielder Chris Hegardt will be a longer-term absentee for Charlotte after picking up an injury last month, and he is not expected to make another appearance for the side until the middle of June.
Swiderski offers the biggest attacking threat for the visitors, and he will lead the line alongside Daniel Rios, who is looking to open his account for Charlotte.
Philadelphia Union possible starting lineup:
Blake; Wagner, Elliott, Glesnes, Harriel; Flach, Martinez, Bedoya; Gazdag; Santos, Carranza
Charlotte FC possible starting lineup:
Kahlina; Mora, Fuchs, Corujo, Lindsey; Jones; Bender, Ruiz, Alcivar; Rios, Swiderski
We say: Philadelphia Union 2-0 Charlotte FC
After recording their first two victories, Charlotte will be hoping that can help them pick up some points this weekend, but Philadelphia do remain favourites for this encounter, given their good start to the campaign.
Union have a distinctive style whereby they like to utilise counter-attacks, which could help Charlotte as they will see a lot of possession, but Philadelphia have proven that they are good at what they do.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 72.96%. A draw had a probability of 17.5% and a win for Charlotte FC had a probability of 9.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.55%) and 3-0 (10.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.25%), while for a Charlotte FC win it was 0-1 (3.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Philadelphia Union in this match.
