RB Leipzig will be looking to secure third position in the Bundesliga table when they finish their 2019-20 domestic campaign away to Augsburg on Saturday afternoon.
The visitors need a win to be sure of finishing third ahead of Borussia Monchengladbach, while 15th-placed Augsburg, who are safe from the drop, could end the campaign as high as 11th.
Match preview
© Reuters
Augsburg have not actually played outside of Germany's top tier since the 2010-11 campaign, and they have already ensured that they will be present at this level of football next season.
There is no getting away from the fact that it has been a tough season for Fuggerstadter, but they are six points clear of 16th-placed Fortuna Dusseldorf heading into the final set of fixtures.
Augsburg have picked up two wins since returning to action amid the coronavirus pandemic but will enter this match off the back of a 1-1 draw against Dusseldorf last weekend.
Heiko Herrlich's side could finish as high as 11th with a win depending on results elsewhere, although they have not actually been victorious on home soil in the league since the start of February, which will not fill their supporters with too much confidence ahead of a clash with one of the best sides in the top tier.
© Reuters
Leipzig, meanwhile, will enter the match off the back of a 2-0 defeat by Borussia Dortmund last weekend, which ended their hopes of claiming a top-two position in the Bundesliga.
Julian Nagelsmann's side have only lost four of their 33 league matches this season - the same as champions Bayern Munich - but a record of 12 draws has cost them the chance to challenge higher up.
All things considered, third would have to go down as a successful campaign for the club, while it could get better as they are still in the Champions League, having impressively overcome Tottenham Hotspur in the round of 16.
Leipzig will finish third providing that they better Borussia Monchengladbach's result against Hertha Berlin, while it is incredibly unlikely that they will drop out of the top four altogether due to their goal difference in relation to fifth-placed Bayer Leverkusen, who are just three points behind the Red Bulls.
Augsburg Bundesliga form: DLDWLD
Leipzig Bundesliga form: DWDWDL
Team News
© Reuters
There are question marks surrounding the fitness of a number of Augsburg players this weekend, with Fredrik Jensen, Jan Moravek, Sergio Cordova and Fabian Giefer all emerging as doubts.
Simon Asta is definitely out with a knee injury, but Tin Jedvaj is available following a suspension and should return to the back four for Saturday's contest.
Florian Niederlechner scored his 13th Bundesliga goal of the season against Dusseldorf last weekend, meanwhile, and the number seven should continue in the final third of the field.
As for Leipzig, all eyes will be on Timo Werner as the Germany international prepares to play his final match for the club ahead of a summer switch to Chelsea.
Werner has scored 32 times in all competitions during the 2019-20 campaign, including 26 in 33 Bundesliga appearances, and the striker's absence is sure to harm Leipzig next season.
Marcel Sabitzer, Konrad Laimer, Hannes Wolf, Yussuf Pulsen and Fabrice Hartmann are all unavailable through injury, while Ethan Ampadu is still struggling with a back problem.
Nagelsmann is expected to make changes from the 2-0 defeat to BVB last weekend with Dani Olmo and Christopher Nkunku likely to start, while Tyler Adams could feature in central midfield.
Augsburg possible starting lineup:
Luthe; Jedvaj, Gouweleeuw, Uduokhai, Max; Khedira, Baier; Bazee, Richter, Vargas; Niederlechner
Leipzig possible starting lineup:
Gulacsi; Klostermann, Upamecano, Halstenberg; Mukiele, Adams, Kampl, Angelino; Olmo, Nkunku; Werner
We say: Augsburg 1-2 Leipzig
Leipzig will be keen to return to winning ways following the disappointment of the loss to Dortmund, and we expect the visitors to triumph at WWK Arena. Werner is likely to be fired up on his final appearance for Leipzig, which could spell bad news for Augsburg on Saturday afternoon.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 64.62%. A draw had a probability of 18.5% and a win for Augsburg had a probability of 16.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.45%) and 1-3 (7.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.12%), while for an Augsburg win it was 2-1 (4.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for RB Leipzig in this match.
