Two teams with plenty to fight for in the final stages of the 2021-22 Ligue 1 campaign will lock horns on Saturday night, as Rennes welcome Marseille to Roazhon Park.
Rennes are currently fifth in the table, one point behind fourth-placed Nice, while Marseille sit second, three clear of third-placed Monaco with two games of the season left.
Match preview
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Rennes have actually lost three of their last five Ligue 1 matches, including a damaging 2-1 reverse at Nantes on Wednesday night, but they have won their last two home games against Lorient and Saint-Etienne, scoring seven times and keeping two clean sheets in the process.
A total of 62 points from 36 matches has left them in fifth spot in the table, which would mean qualification for the Europa Conference League playoff round, but they are only two points clear of sixth-placed Strasbourg with two games left, so a lot could still change.
Rennes could actually still finish second, sitting six points behind second-placed Marseille ahead of this match, so the Champions League and Europa League are still on offer heading into the next set of fixtures.
Bruno Genesio's side can only look after themselves and see where that takes them, but a poor result on Saturday would put them under major pressure leading into their final game of the season away to Lille, which has the potential to be a tough fixture despite the struggles of last season's champions.
Rennes have been excellent at home this season, picking up 40 points from 18 matches, with only Paris Saint-Germain (48) securing more points in front of their own supporters in 2021-22.
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Marseille, though, have the best away record in Ligue 1 this season, collecting 39 points from 18 matches, and they could potentially secure second spot in the table with a victory this weekend.
Jorge Sampaoli's side are three points clear of third-placed Monaco with an identical goal difference, but they have a better head-to-head record over the team directly below them, which could potentially be used to separate the sides depending on what happens in their next two matches.
Finishing second could ensure that they qualify for the group stage of the Champions League alongside PSG, while third would put them in the third qualifying round of the European Cup.
Marseille, who lost to Feyenoord in the semi-finals of the Europa Conference League, will enter this match off the back of a 3-0 victory over Lorient last weekend, and they have now been victorious in three of their last four games in France's top flight.
Les Olympiens have a tough end to the season, though, taking on two teams that have European ambitions of their own, with final-day opponents Strasbourg currently just two points behind Rennes in sixth.
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Team News
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Rennes will be able to welcome Nayef Aguerd back from suspension for this match, and the 26-year-old is expected to return to the starting XI.
Loic Bade, Kamal-Deen Sulemana and Jeremy Gelin were all again absent against Nantes through injury, though, and the trio will be missing for this weekend's contest.
Head coach Genesio is expected to resist the temptation to shuffle his pack, with a 4-3-3 formation set to include Martin Terrier, Gaetan Laborde and Benjamin Bourigeaud in the final third of the field.
As for Marseille, Dimitri Payet is out for the remainder of the season with a calf problem, while Konrad de la Fuente, Leonardo Balerdi and Arkadiusz Milik are also on the sidelines.
Cedric Bakambu and Bamba Dieng were both substituted during the win over Lorient last time out, so Luis Henrique could play at centre-forward if neither recover in time.
Duje Caleta-Car was also substituted in the early stages of the second half against Lorient, which could open the door for Sead Kolasinac to start in the middle of the defence for the visitors.
Rennes possible starting lineup:
Gomis; Traore, Omari, Santamaria, Aguerd; Majer, Martin, Tait; Bourigeaud, Laborde, Terrier
Marseille possible starting lineup:
Mandanda; Rongier, Saliba, Kolasinac, Peres; Guendouzi, Kamara, Gueye; Under, Henrique, Gerson
We say: Rennes 1-1 Marseille
Rennes have the second-best home record in Ligue 1 this season, while Marseille have the strongest away record, so this is a really difficult match to call. It would not be a surprise to see a home or indeed an away victory, but we have a feeling that this game will end all square.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rennes win with a probability of 60.13%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Marseille had a probability of 17.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rennes win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.04%) and 2-1 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.59%), while for a Marseille win it was 0-1 (5.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rennes would win this match.
Top tip
Matt Law
