Fresh from holding Paris Saint-Germain to an impressive draw, Lyon make the journey to Troyes for Sunday afternoon's Ligue 1 battle.
Peter Bosz's side played out a 1-1 stalemate with the runaway leaders last time out, while the hosts' proposed clash with Montpellier HSC was called off due to a coronavirus outbreak.
Match preview
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With as many as 13 players reported to have contracted COVID-19, Troyes' battle with an in-form Montpellier side was unsurprisingly postponed, as the newly-promoted outfit now prepare for an even more daunting first clash of 2022.
Laurent Battles's men are seemingly already set for a relegation scrap in their bid to salvage their Ligue 1 status, with their final game of 2021 ending in a 1-1 draw against Brest as veteran defender Adil Rami cancelled out Franck Honorat's fifth-minute opener.
That one-pointer did at least snap a three-game losing run in all competitions for Sunday's hosts, who enter the contest lying 16th in the table - only one point clear of Lorient in the relegation playoff spot and 19th-placed Metz, who have played a game more.
Troyes' relatively solid start to the season has petered out since Halloween, with Battles now overseeing five defeats from his side's last seven encounters, and one can safely assume that the newly-promoted side will not be in perfect health in the wake of their coronavirus cluster.
The home faithful can take confidence from the fact that their side have lost just two of their last eight Ligue 1 encounters at the Stade de l'Aube - taking points off Nice, Rennes and Montpellier in the process - and Lyon are certainly not the force to be reckoned with that they once were.
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Lyon's penchant for stalemates from the end of 2021 has seemingly carried over into 2022, but Bosz's side can be proud of this one-pointer, as they prevented PSG from extending their lead at the summit with a 1-1 draw at the Groupama Stadium.
Brazilian duo Bruno Guimaraes and Lucas Paqueta combined for the latter to fire home the opener within the first seven minutes, but substitute Thilo Kehrer restored parity for Mauricio Pochettino's side in the second period to deny Les Gones a priceless win.
Lyon have now shared the spoils in each of their last five games across all competitions and are without a win since overcoming Montpellier 1-0 back in November, with that dismal streak seeing them languish in 11th in the rankings - only six points adrift of the top five, though.
The pressure will continue to weigh heavily on Bosz's shoulders for as long as his side fail to sustain a European charge, and their form on the road also makes for bleak reading, as Lyon have won just twice away from home in Ligue 1 all season.
Les Gones did ease to a 3-1 win over Troyes at the Groupama Stadium back in September, which marked their eighth win on the bounce versus their hosts in all competitions since a 1-0 defeat in February 2007 under the tutelage of Gerard Houllier.
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Team News
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Troyes goalkeeper Jessy Moulin saw red for an on-the-bench argument during the draw with Brest before Christmas and is suspended for this one, but Gauthier Gallon was always going to get the nod in between the sticks.
The hosts will also be hit with the absences of Mama Balde, Issa Kabore and Rominigue Kouame due to the Africa Cup of Nations, while Karim Azamoum, Philippe Sandler and Metinho are all in the infirmary.
New arrival Abdu Conte could be thrown straight in for his debut with full-back Kabore absent, and Balde's place up top ought to be filled by Nassim Chadli.
As for Lyon, Bosz's attacking ranks have been depleted with Tino Kadewere, Islam Slimani and Karl Toko Ekambi jetting off to AFCON, so the return of Paqueta from COVID-19 was extremely timely.
Jerome Boateng will be suspended for next week's clash with Saint-Etienne but is available here, with fellow defenders Jason Denayer and Sinaly Diomande once again expected to miss out due to injury.
Thiago Mendes is recovering from coronavirus but would have been unlikely to force his way in here, with Bosz likely seeing no reason to make any alterations to his side this weekend.
Troyes possible starting lineup:
Gallon; Biancone, Giraudon, Rami, Salmier, Conte; Chavalerin, Tardieu; Ripart; Dingome, Chadli
Lyon possible starting lineup:
Lopes; Lukeba, Boateng, Da Silva; Dubois, Guimaraes, Caqueret, Emerson; Paqueta, Aouar; Dembele
We say: Troyes 1-3 Lyon
Keeping the back door shut has been a problem for Lyon all season long, but Bosz's side ought to take advantage of this prime opportunity to end their miserable drawing streak.
Troyes' solid home form and Lyon's underwhelming away form will have the home faithful believing that an upset could come to fruition, but a Paqueta-inspired Gones should run out convincing winners.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 44.48%. A win for Troyes had a probability of 30.3% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.13%) and 0-2 (7.5%). The likeliest Troyes win was 1-0 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Lyon in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Lyon.
