Needing a victory by two or more goals to have any hope of progressing into the next phase of the Copa Sudamericana, Universidad Catolica will host Club Libertad in the second leg of that round of 32 clash on Wednesday at Estadio Olimpico Atahualpa in Ecuador.
In the opening game between these two sides last week, a pair of second-half strikes lifted the reigning Paraguayan champions to a 2-0 triumph in Asuncion.
Match preview
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After a poor second-half performance in Paraguay last week, Jorge Celico's men have some ground to make up if they are to advance into the last 16 of this tournament for the first time since 2019.
It may feel like a steep hill to climb, but the Ecuadorians have won three of their previous four home contests across all competitions, with two of those triumphs being by three or more goals.
So far in this competition, Universidad have failed to find the back of the net on four occasions, including each of their previous three games, one of which was at home on matchday five against Alianza (0-0).
Two of their three victories at the Sudamericana this year transpired when they had scored the opener, coming from a goal down to win once versus the aforementioned Alianza in their third group fixture.
Los Camaratas have won their last three knockout matches in this competition by a combined margin of 9-2, but have not advanced from a Sudamericana tie after losing the opening game since reversing a 1-0 deficit in their first-round tie versus Colo-Colo in 2019, winning that game by that same score and progressing on penalties.
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A second successive place in the last 16 of the Sudamericana is within reach for Libertad, who showed plenty of determination in the final 45 minutes last Wednesday, firing 10 efforts on target in the entire match, while conceding only one.
Since a 2-0 defeat to River Plate on matchday five of the Copa Libertadores, Ariel Galeano's side are unbeaten in eight consecutive matches across all competitions, with the last seven being victories.
In their previous eight Copa Sudamericana appearances, the Paraguayans have made it to the last 16 seven times, with the only exception being in 2016 when Palestino knocked them out in the opening round 4-0 on aggregate.
Not since 2017 have they been eliminated from a knockout tie at the Sudamericana after winning the opening encounter, following up a 1-0 victory versus Independiente in Paraguay with a 3-1 defeat away from home.
All three of their Sudamericana knockout fixtures played in Ecuador have resulted in a 1-0 defeat for Gumarelo, with the last one taking place nearly a decade ago (September 2014), losing 1-0 at Barcelona SC but going on to win that tie, 2-1 on aggregate.
Team News
In the opening match of this round-of-32 tie, the side from Quito brought in five new faces to the starting 11 who did not begin their matchday six encounter versus Cruzeiro, Daykol Romero, Facundo Martinez, Kevin Quevedo, Aaron Rodriguez and Jose Fajardo.
Fajardo had a brace, Ismael Diaz scored once and Jhon Cifuente found the back of the net in their previous Sudamericana triumph at Estadio Olimpico Atahualpa, while Rafael Romo has not conceded a single goal at home in this competition.
Last week, Libertad were without Hector Villalba due to a cruciate ligament tear, as only three players that began their final group game at the Libertadores were in the starting 11 for their first Sudamericana clash of the year - Luis Cardozo, Lorenzo Melgarejo and Oscar Cardozo.
Cardozo netted the winner against Universidad Catolica with the insurance marker coming courtesy of Lucas Sanabria, while Rodrigo Morinigo only had to make one stop for the clean sheet.
Universidad Catolica possible starting lineup:
Romo; Quinonez, Vallecilla, Grillo, Loor; Minda, Clavijo; Quevedo, Nieto, Rodriguez; Fajardo
Club Libertad possible starting lineup:
Morinigo; Ramirez, L. Cardozo, Viera, Gimenez; Bareiro, Sanabria, Caballero, Melgarejo; Lezcano; O. Cardozo
We say: Universidad Catolica 0-0 Club Libertad (Club Libertad advance 2-0 on aggregate)
Having a two-goal cushion coming into this match should allow Club Libertad to focus on what they do best, play in a compact low block and hit their opponents on the counter.
All tournament long, the Ecuadorians have struggled to produce much quality in the attacking third, and we expect they will be left frustrated on Wednesday against a side that are well-organised and disciplined on the backline.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
