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Copa Sudamericana | Round of 32 | 2nd Leg
Jul 24, 2024 at 11pm UK
Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo
Club Libertad

U. Catolica
1 - 1
Libertad

Fajardo (6')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Cardozo (90+1')
Melgarejo (12'), Caballero (42'), Bareiro (45')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Universidad Catolica and Club Libertad, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Universidad Catolica

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Last Game: Libertad 2-0 U. Catolica
Wednesday, July 17 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Club Libertad

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Libertad 2-0 U. Catolica
Wednesday, July 17 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

We said: Universidad Catolica 0-0 Club Libertad (Club Libertad advance 2-0 on aggregate)

 Having a two-goal cushion coming into this match should allow Club Libertad to focus on what they do best, play in a compact low block and hit their opponents on the counter. All tournament long, the Ecuadorians have struggled to produce much quality in the attacking third, and we expect they will be left frustrated on Wednesday against a side that are well-organised and disciplined on the backline. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Universidad Catolica win with a probability of 51.07%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Club Libertad had a probability of 23.79%.

The most likely scoreline for a Universidad Catolica win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.5%) and 2-1 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.94%), while for a Club Libertad win it was 0-1 (7.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Universidad CatolicaDrawClub Libertad
51.07% (0.053999999999995 0.05) 25.14% (-0.015999999999998 -0.02) 23.79% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)
Both teams to score 50.18% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.73% (0.033000000000001 0.03)52.26% (-0.031999999999996 -0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.03% (0.027000000000001 0.03)73.96% (-0.025999999999996 -0.03)
Universidad Catolica Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.52% (0.033999999999992 0.03)20.47% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.06% (0.055 0.05)52.94% (-0.052999999999997 -0.05)
Club Libertad Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.1% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)36.9% (0.017000000000003 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.31% (-0.016000000000002 -0.02)73.68% (0.016000000000005 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Universidad Catolica 51.07%
    Club Libertad 23.79%
    Draw 25.13%
Universidad CatolicaDrawClub Libertad
1-0 @ 11.98%
2-0 @ 9.5% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.47% (0.0040000000000013 0)
3-0 @ 5.02% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
3-1 @ 5.01% (0.008 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.5% (0.0029999999999997 0)
4-0 @ 1.99% (0.006 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.99% (0.0049999999999999 0)
4-2 @ 0.99% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.61%
Total : 51.07%
1-1 @ 11.94% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 7.55% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.72%
Other @ 0.92%
Total : 25.13%
0-1 @ 7.53% (-0.013 -0.01)
1-2 @ 5.96% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
0-2 @ 3.76% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
1-3 @ 1.98% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
2-3 @ 1.57%
0-3 @ 1.25% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
Other @ 1.75%
Total : 23.79%

How you voted: U. Catolica vs Libertad

Universidad Catolica
41.7%
Draw
25.0%
Club Libertad
33.3%
12
Head to Head
Jul 17, 2024 11pm
Round of 32 1st Leg
Libertad
2-0
U. Catolica
Cardozo (49'), Sanabria (74')
Caballero (42')

Nieto (26'), Rodriguez (33'), Grillo (82')
> Preview
Mar 17, 2021 10.15pm
Second Round
Libertad
2-2
U. Catolica
Ferreira (33', 64')
Baez (71')
Chala (61'), Manuel Tevez (83' pen.)
Joel Carabali Prado (48'), De Los Santos (58')
Mar 10, 2021 10.15pm
Second Round
U. Catolica
0-1
Libertad

Manuel Tevez (37'), Ona (61')
Bogarin (38')
Cougo (15'), Mejia (21'), Ferreira (56'), Martinez (83')
rhs 2.0
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