Universitario will look to keep their second-round hopes alive in the Copa Libertadores on Tuesday when they host Independiente del Valle at Estadio Monumental "U".
Los Merengues are at the bottom of their group with just a single point after four matches played, and Los Negriazules are just one point behind Defensa y Justicia for second in Group A.
Match preview
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With only two games remaining in the group stage of this competition, Angel Comizzo and his team know they cannot afford any more defeats if they want to progress beyond this stage of the competition.
The Peruvians were able to earn their first point on matchday four, as they drew 1-1 with Defensa y Justicia in a match where they could have captured all three points but failed to hang onto their late first-half lead.
On a positive note, the reigning Fase 1 champions in Peru created some scoring opportunities, which they have rarely done in the group stage of the Copa Libertadores.
They fired four shots on target against Defensa, which is more than they had in their opening three matches combined after they had failed to register a shot on goal in their previous two games.
Their top goalscorer in the league, Alberto Quintero, finally got his name on the scoresheet in this competition in their last match.
He will hope to continue his strong goalscoring form of late, having found the back of the net twice in his previous three league fixtures.
For Los Negriazules, this competition has come down to making the most of their opportunities, something they have not done enough of to this point, as they are currently sitting in third place in their group.
Despite dominating possession with more than 60% in every match, they have gone goalless on two occasions in this competition.
Central midfielder Lorenzo Faravelli has scored three goals in his previous three games but has yet to contribute in that department in this tournament.
Renato Paiva will hope that his side can respond on the road after struggling in both this competition and domestically in Ecuador.
In their previous two matches away from home, the club based out of Sangolqui in Ecuador have suffered two defeats, losing by a combined score of 7-1.
Before that, they had gone undefeated in four consecutive matches in all competitions, scoring 10 goals.
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Team News
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The home side have plenty of injuries heading into this pivotal match on Thursday.
Aamet Calderon has an Achilles tendon rupture, and Alexander Succar is still recovering from the Achilles tendon surgery he had in March.
First-choice keeper Jose Carvallo is suspended after being red-carded in their league match against Cienciano, while right-back Diego Chavez is in quarantine due to COVID and Ivan Santillan is still nursing a knee injury.
Anthony Osorio continues to suffer from a leg injury, and Hernan Novick is healthy but is still searching for his first goal of this campaign.
Jose Maria Carrasco will miss another match for the Ecuadorians as he continues to recover from a knee injury, while left-back Beder Caicedo is out with a tibia fracture.
The back three of Anthony Estacio, William Tenorio and Luis Segovia made life very easy for goalkeeper Wellington Ramirez in their last match versus Universitario, limiting the Peruvians to three shots in total, but none were on target.
Universitario possible starting lineup:
Melendez; Quina, Hernandez, Moran; Alfageme, Guarderas, Barreto, Novick, Quintero; Saavedra, Urruti
Independiente del Valle possible starting lineup:
Ramirez; Estacio, Segovia, Tenorio; Cheme, Uca, Escobar, Guerrero, Faravelli; Murillo, Ortiz
We say: Universitario 1-4 Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle have never lost to a Peruvian side in their five matches against them in this competition, earning four clean sheets and outscoring their opponents by an aggregate score of 10-2.
La U have allowed 25 shots on target in their three games in this competition, and they have failed to test opposing keepers with a single shot on goal in two of their four matches, which is not a good recipe for success.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Universitario win with a probability of 45.54%. A win for Independiente del Valle had a probability of 29.99% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Universitario win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.07%) and 2-0 (7.32%). The likeliest Independiente del Valle win was 1-2 (7.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.47%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Universitario would win this match.
