Needing a victory to advance into the next stage of the Copa Sudamericana, Universitario will host Corinthians in the second leg of that round of 32 tie on Tuesday at Estadio Monumental "U".
In the opening leg last week, Los Merengues conceded late in Sao Paolo, losing 1-0, making this a must-win situation for the Peruvians to have any hope of advancing into the round of 16 for the first time since 2011, while a victory or draw would be enough for Timao to move on.
Match preview
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A seemingly all-out defensive approach employed by Jorge Fossati in the opening leg worked well for over 70 minutes last Tuesday, but in the end, the Peruvians' passiveness when in possession and aggressive tackling came back to bite them.
Throughout that encounter, Universitario were very physical in breaking up the Brazilians' transitional game, but a 73rd-minute red card turned the tide in Corinthians' favour as they took the lead minutes later and held on.
Four of the six goals conceded by Los Merengues in this competition have occurred away from home, three beyond the 75th minute.
Now Universitario must do something no Peruvian side has achieved since 2014, reverse an opening leg deficit and advance at this tournament.
Historically they have only ever captured one Sudamericana encounter versus a Brazilian opponent, blanking Vasco da Gama at home 2-0 in the 2011 quarter-finals.
Playing from behind is something this team have rarely experienced throughout the domestic season, and when they trail, Los Merengues have struggled, losing their last five matches in all competitions when conceding first, failing to score in four of those encounters.
Universitario have not put themselves in a position where they need to come back at home in quite some time, winning seven successive matches in all competitions at Estadio Monumental "U", posting a clean sheet on each occasion, and they are unbeaten in Lima since February (2-1 defeat versus Alianza Lima).
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Patience was the name of the game for Time do Povo in leg one of this tie, and although it took a while that approach eventually paid off.
Escaping the opening half unscathed has been critical to their success, winning four successive matches when they were able to do so, claiming three shutouts in the process.
Vanderlei Luxemburgo's men have conceded a goal or fewer in each of their previous four away matches in all competitions but have only captured one of their last three games as the visiting team.
A 3-2 victory over America Mineiro in the Copa do Brasil this past weekend sent that tie into a penalty shootout, with Corinthians advancing into the semi-finals in what was the fifth successive second-leg victory for Timao in all competitions.
Corinthians are unbeaten in four straight return legs in this tournament, a run which goes back to 2007 after they lost 2-1 to Botafogo and were eliminated 5-2 on aggregate.
Following an opening leg triumph against Universitario, Time do Povo have now outscored Peruvian clubs 9-0 in three Sudamericana encounters, conceding one or fewer shots on target over that stretch.
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Team News
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Universitario will be missing Alex Valera on Tuesday following his straight red card in the opening leg, Jose Carvallo and Roberto Siucho were ruled out of that encounter through suspension, while Alexander Succar was unavailable with an ankle sprain.
Valera and Williams Riveros were the last players on this team to score against a Brazilian opponent, as they each netted in a 2-2 home draw versus Goias in the Sudamericana group stage.
Emanuel Herrera and Jose Rivera found the back of the net in their previous league fixture on Friday, as Carvallo did not have to make a single stop for the clean sheet.
Gustavo Silva may be forced to the Corinthians sidelines until late July because of an ACL issue, Paulinho is out for the season after spraining his ACL, while Chrystian Barletta is unlikely to feature until the end of the month due to a knee injury.
Felipe Augusto had the only goal in the opening leg of this tie, as Carlos Miguel only had to make one stop for the clean sheet.
On Saturday, Corinthians were able to reverse a 1-0 quarter-final deficit at the Copa do Brasil as Renato Augusto, Yuri Alberto and Roger Guedes all netted in normal time, while Cassio stopped Paulinho Boia and Martin Benitez from 12 yards away, enabling Corinthians to advance on penalties.
Universitario possible starting lineup:
Carvallo; Corzo, Riveros, Di Benedetto; Polo, Urena, Barco, Flores; Quispe; Urruti, Rivera
Corinthians possible starting lineup:
Miguel; Ramos, Mendez, Caetano, Fabio Santos; Adson, Giuliano, Maycon; Romero, F. Augusto, Pedro
We say: Universitario 0-0 Corinthians (Corinthians win 1-0 on aggregate)
The Peruvians have shown they can keep pace with an experienced group like Corinthians, and Los Merengues should feel comfortable given their current home form, but we have a hard time seeing them create much when in possession.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Universitario win with a probability of 62.51%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Corinthians had a probability of 13.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Universitario win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.89%) and 2-1 (8.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.57%), while for a Corinthians win it was 0-1 (6.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
