VfL Bochum and Mainz 05 go head to head in the DFB-Pokal on Tuesday evening, with the two sides meeting for the second time in the space of four days following their Bundesliga clash on Saturday.
Mainz were the winners by a 1-0 scoreline in that clash at the Opel Arena, but now the two sides meet at the Vonovia Ruhrstadion looking to reach the quarter-finals of Germany's domestic cup.
Match preview
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Saturday's narrow defeat to Mainz means Bochum head into Tuesday's cup tie on the back of just a single victory in their last five matches either side of the Bundesliga winter break.
However, despite that stuttering run, the newly-promoted side remain in a strong position in Germany's top flight, with 23 points from their opening 19 games seeing Thomas Reis's side occupy 11th spot at the time of writing, with four points between themselves and Augsburg in the relegation playoff spot.
With this season's primary aim being focused around survival on their return to the Bundesliga, a DFB-Pokal cup run will not be high on the agenda for Die Unabsteigbaren, but after being handed a home tie and avoiding one of the giants left in the competition, Tuesday's game could be viewed as an excellent opportunity to progress further.
Although, upcoming clashes with FC Koln, Hertha Berlin, Stuttgart and Greuther Furth over the next six league games mean Bochum are presented with a chance of picking up some vital points over the next few weeks in the league, so Reis will be eager for his side to avoid extra time and the fitness issues that potentially come with it.
Having already needed extra time to defeat amateur side Wuppertaler SV in round one though, as well as extra time and penalties to see off fellow Bundesliga side Augsburg in round two back in October, the tie certainly possesses the potential of one that could be required to go the full distance.
Following an exit at this stage last season, albeit in a 4-0 defeat at giants RB Leipzig, Bochum will be hoping to progress to the quarter-finals stage for the first time since the 2015-16 campaign, when a 3-0 loss to Bayern Munich ended their cup run that year.
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As for the visitors, they will be looking to progress to the quarter-finals stage for the first time since the 2017-18 season, as well as getting one over the side that knocked them out of the competition in the second round last campaign.
Mainz too required extra time in both of their previous ties this season though, with penalties being needed to see off amateur side SV Elversberg in the first round, and a 3-2 victory over Arminia Bielefeld in the last round only being achieved following extra time as well.
With Tuesday's visitors in the midst of a hugely-successful Bundesliga campaign so far, attentions can turn to a potential cup run without little focus or concern being required for the impact it may have on the league efforts in the coming months.
The 1-0 victory over their opponents at the weekend, thanks to Jeremiah St Juste's goal early in the second half, helped to put Die Nullfunfer in an excellent position of 10th at this stage, with a comfortable eight-point gap being opened up between themselves and Augsburg in the relegation playoff spot at the time of writing.
Although Bo Svensson's side are just three points off a European place as things stand, Mainz would not be expected to achieve that unlikely goal considering the level of competition and number of teams vying for the same league positions.
Therefore, a successful run in the DFB-Pokal remains a realistic target, and one that can be given full attention compared to recent years, when Mainz have usually been caught up in relegation battles.
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Team News
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Bochum have just the two injury concerns to contend with ahead of Tuesday's cup tie as things stand, with third-choice goalkeeper Paul Grave being kept out by a shoulder injury, and forward Simon Zoller being ruled out until May due to a serious knee injury.
Second-choice goalkeeper Michael Esser should take his place in goal, as he did in the previous round, in place of usual number one Manuel Riemann.
Reis has fielded strong starting lineups in rounds one and two, so this encounter should be no different, and so the only other changes from Saturday's game could see the likes of Danilo Soares and Elvis Rexhbecaj return to the 11.
Meanwhile, Mainz will be without a quartet of players on Tuesday - midfield duo Dominik Kohr and Niklas Tauer, and the forward pair of Adam Szalai and Marcus Ingvartsen, with all being unavailable due to respective injuries.
First-choice goalkeeper Robin Zentner has played every game this season and so should continue between the posts, particularly after his excellent display against Bochum on Saturday.
Anderson Lucoqui could earn an opportunity at left wing-back in place of Aaron Martin, and Jean-Paul Boetius will be hoping to start ahead of either Leandro Barreiro or Lee Jae-sung.
VfL Bochum possible starting lineup:
Esser; Stafylidis; Bella-Kotchap, Leitsch, Soares; Lowen, Losilla, Rexhbecaj; Asano, Polter, Pantovic
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; St Juste, Bell, Niakhate; Widmer, Boetius, Stach, Lee, Lucoqui; Onisiwo, Burkardt
We say: VfL Bochum 1-0 Mainz 05
Mainz certainly head into this fixture as the side possessing the greater quality and better form overall this season, but following four consecutive defeats on the road, we are predicting Bochum to edge them out on Tuesday.
Both sides are tight defensively and score few goals, so as there was on Saturday, we are expecting just the one goal to be enough in a tight encounter.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 41.11%. A win for VfL Bochum had a probability of 34.09% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.54%) and 0-2 (6.48%). The likeliest VfL Bochum win was 2-1 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that VfL Bochum would win this match.
