Newly promoted VfL Bochum welcome last-placed Hertha Berlin in Sunday's Bundesliga action at the Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
The hosts have made a fairly positive return to the top flight at the beginning of the new campaign, whilst the visitors continue to suffer at the wrong end of the table after a poor 2020-21 season.
Match preview
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After unexpectedly guiding Bochum to their first season back in the Bundesliga since 2009-10, manager Thomas Reis will be fairly satisfied with results and performances in the opening three league matches.
A single home win and two away defeats mean this weekend's hosts currently sit in mid-table.
The victory arrived on home soil against another side tipped to struggle down at the bottom end of the table this year - Mainz 05.
The 2-0 win was probably not deserved but Reis will be pleased to see his side manage to grind out results even when not playing at their best, especially with points probably being hard to come by this season.
Most recently, Bochum faced off against another expected-to-struggle opponent before the international break, when they tasted defeat at FC Koln.
It was only a narrow 2-1 loss, but the concern for Die Unabsteigbaren was the fact that they were dominated for large parts and the result largely flattered them, despite it being against a similarly matched opponent.
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As for the visitors, a dreadful start to the season sees them sit bottom of the Bundesliga table after losing all of their opening three league matches.
After another poor league position in the 2020-21 season, Hertha, and manager Pal Dardai, would have been looking for a bright start to the new campaign in order to allow them to spend the season looking upwards rather than over their shoulders.
With the significant investment in the playing squad over recent years, the supporters will be expecting significant improvements soon.
The opening two defeats will be the results that concern Dardai the most, as these arrived away to fellow recent strugglers FC Koln and at home to Wolfsburg.
Although the latter was a tough opponent, he would have hoped that home advantage and the general balance of play could have seen his side take at least a point.
Most recently, a 5-0 thumping away to champions Bayern Munich was suffered, but this should not dishearten the Berlin club too much considering most sides will be expecting a hammering when they visit the Allianz Arena this season.
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Team News
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Hosts Bochum continue to miss regular defensive duo Cristian Gamboa and Maxim Leitsch when Hertha visit on Sunday. Armel Bella-Kotchap and Herbert Bockhorn will take their place in the starting lineup again.
Midfielder Takuma Asano missed the defeat to Koln with a groin problem and has been ruled out again for this one.
Meanwhile, Kevin-Prince Boateng is expected to return for the visitors on Sunday, as he has overcome a back problem picked up in the defeat to Wolfsburg.
Summer signings Ishak Belfodil and Marco Richter could be set to make their first starts for Hertha, in the absence of forwards Stevan Jovetic and Krzysztof Piatek.
Marvin Plattenhardt also remains out, as do Marton Dardai, Rune Jarstein and Davie Selke.
VfL Bochum possible starting lineup:
Riemann; Bockhorn, Lampropoulos, Bella-Kotchap, Soares; Losilla, Tesche; Zoller, Lowen, Holtmann; Polter
Hertha Berlin possible starting lineup:
Schwolow; Zeefuik, Boyata, Stark, Mittelstadt; Ascacibar, Tousart; Richter, Serdar, Boateng; Belfodil
We say: VfL Bochum 1-1 Hertha Berlin
This could be a tight match between two similarly matched sides tipped to struggle at the wrong end of the table. Hertha would usually be expected to be the stronger of the two but their poor start, combined with the lack of home advantage and absent first-teamers, means a draw is a likely outcome.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a VfL Bochum win with a probability of 47.44%. A win for Hertha Berlin had a probability of 29% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a VfL Bochum win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.31%) and 2-0 (7.19%). The likeliest Hertha Berlin win was 1-2 (7.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.
