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[monks data]
Turkey national football team
European Championship | Group Stage
Jun 16, 2021 at 5pm UK
Bakı Olimpiya Stadionu
Wales national football team

Turkey
0 - 2
Wales


Yilmaz (90+2'), Calhanoglu (90+2')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Ramsey (42'), Roberts (90+5')
Davies (90+2'), Mepham (90+2')

Preview: Turkey vs. Wales - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's European Championship clash between Turkey and Wales, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Wales and Turkey meet at the Baku Olympic Stadium in Azerbaijan in a huge Euro 2020 contest on matchday two in Group A.

The Dragons earned a 1-1 draw against Switzerland in their opening match, while Turkey were well beaten 3-0 by co-hosts Italy.


Match preview

Kieffer Moore celebrates scoring for Wales against Switzerland at Euro 2020 on June 12, 2021© Reuters

Rob Page accepted that Wales were somewhat fortunate to come away from their match against Switzerland on Saturday with a potentially vital point.

La Nati had double the number of shots than Wales and should have added to their lead after Breel Embolo had opened the scoring early in the second half.

However, some fine saves from Danny Ward kept the Dragons in the game and Kieffer Moore justified his selection by heading in an equaliser for Wales in the blistering Baku heat.

That leaves Wales in a decent position after the first set of fixtures in Group A, with a victory against Turkey on Wednesday effectively enough to seal a place in the last 16.

A defeat to a Turkey side that will be heavily supported in Azerbaijan, however, and all that will change.

The Crescent-Stars were backed as the tournament dark horses by many, but they failed to turn up against Italy in the opening game of the competition last Friday.

After holding firm during the first half, a Merih Demiral own goal opened the floodgates as further strikes from Ciro Immobile and Lorenzo Insigne followed at the Stadio Olimpico.

Turkey's Hakan Calhanoglu in action with Italy's Manuel Locatelli on June 11, 2021© Reuters

That ended a run of six games without a defeat for Turkey, though Senol Gunes's men have not lost back-to-back matches since Mircea Lucescu was at the helm in November 2018.

Turkey also boast an impressive record against Wales, last losing in this fixture in 1981 when Gunes was in goal for the home side.

In fact, Page was also on the field when Wales last met Turkey some 24 years ago - a game that finished 6-4 in the Crescent-Stars' favour.

A similar high-scoring affair is not expected this time around, but both sides would happily accept a narrow one-goal victory if offered to them ahead of this latest encounter.

Turkey European Championship form:
  • L

Turkey form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • L

Wales European Championship form:
  • D

Wales form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • D



Team News

Wales' Aaron Ramsey during the warm up on June 5, 2021© Reuters

Page's big selection calls ultimately paid off against Switzerland, with Ward and Moore justifying their starting spots.

The interim Wales boss also elected to revert to a back four, as opposed to the back three used in the warm-up games, and that will likely remain the case here.

Harry Wilson is pushing for a recall in attack, with that selection call possibly depending on whether Aaron Ramsey can play twice in quick succession.

Ethan Ampadu and David Brooks, introduced from the bench against Switzerland, are two others pushing for recalls to the starting lineup on Wednesday.

As for Turkey, Gunes will surely be tempted to make some changes on the back of the heavy loss to Italy, with his side providing very little attacking threat.

Cengiz Under, Irfan Can Kahveci and Kaan Ayhan are all in contention to return to the side, but Burak Yilmaz is expected to retain his place up top.

Ozan Kabak was an unused substitute against Italy, though Caglar Soyuncu and Demiral seem likely to get the nod at centre-back once again.

Turkey possible starting lineup:
Cakir; Celik, Demiral, Soyuncu; Meras; Under, Yazici, Yokuslu, Kahveci, Calhanoglu; Yilmaz

Wales possible starting lineup:
Ward; Roberts, Mepham, Rodon, Davies; Allen, Morrell; Bale, Ramsey, James; Moore


SM words green background

We say: Turkey 1-1 Wales

Group A was always likely to be dominated by draws with so many similarly-ranked nations - heavyweights Italy aside - facing off.

Both teams will be targeting three points from this match, but we can see the points being shared in Baku on Wednesday - a result that will keep the group wide open.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Turkey win with a probability of 41.62%. A win for Wales had a probability of 31.09% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Turkey win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.53%) and 2-0 (7.73%). The likeliest Wales win was 0-1 (9.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.9%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Turkey vs Wales

Turkey
48.3%
Draw
25.4%
Wales
26.3%
1275
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Turkey's Kaan Ayhan celebrates scoring their second goal with teammates on May 27, 2021
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Turkey Euro 2020 preview - prediction, fixtures, squad, star player
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Group A

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Germany Germany32107
Q Switzerland Switzerland31205
3 Hungary Hungary31023
4 Scotland flag Scotland30121

Group B

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Spain Spain33009
Q Italy Italy31114
3 Croatia Croatia30212
4 Albania national flag Albania30121

Group C

TeamPWDLPTS
Q England flag England31205
Q Denmark Denmark30303
Q Slovenia Slovenia30303
4 Serbia Serbia30212

Group D

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Austria Austria32016
Q France France31205
Q Netherlands Netherlands31114
4 Poland Poland30121

Group E

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Romania Romania31114
Q Belgium Belgium31114
Q Slovakia Slovakia31114
4 Ukraine Ukraine31114

Group F

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Portugal Portugal32016
Q Turkey Turkey32016
Q Georgia Georgia31114
4 Czech Republic Czech Republic30121


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