Werder Bremen host FC Koln on Friday as the 2020-21 Bundesliga campaign continues, with the visitors still looking for their first win of the campaign.
Bremen, meanwhile, have drawn three consecutive matches 1-1 after a creditable point at Eintracht Frankfurt last weekend.
Match preview
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Indeed, having only survived relegation in a playoff against Heidenheim last season, it has been a solid start to the season for Florian Kohfeldt's side.
The 1-1 draw at Frankfurt last weekend was their third consecutive draw by that scoreline, with Joshua Sargent capping a fine counter-attack by firing past Kevin Trapp at the near post to score his first league goal since the last day of last season.
Having been denied taking the lead themselves in the first half after Andre Silva was adjudged to have been offside in the build up to Daichi Kamada's strike, the hosts fought back by robbing Jean-Manuel Mbom of possession after the left-back needlessly tried to shield the ball outside his own penalty area, with Kamada squaring for Silva to level the match, with a draw probably a fair result in a largely uninspiring affair.
Kohfeldt's side have lost just one of their opening six matches to occupy a top half position, but the 38-year-old will be hoping for an improved performance and a first win in four matches against their struggling opposition.
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Koln, meanwhile, may remain winless but will have been encouraged by the resolve shown in their 2-1 defeat at home to Bayern Munich last weekend.
Admittedly Hansi Flick did opt to rest Robert Lewandowski, handing Eric Choupo-Moting a rare start, but otherwise the reigning European and Bundesliga champions were at close to full strength. Marius Wolf was adjudged to have handled the ball in the area, allowing Thomas Muller to score his first league penalty since December 2015, before Serge Gnabry cut in from the right flank and placed the ball in the bottom left corner with his left foot having been allowed far too much space to run into.
However, Markus Gisdol's side threatened Bayern in the second half, with Ismail Jakobs hitting the side netting before Jan Thielmann's strike – which was comfortably heading wide – hit Dominick Drexler and went in to create a nervy end to the match for Bayern, but Tolu Arokodare's last minute header from a corner was comfortably saved by Manuel Neuer.
Despite sitting in the bottom three on two points, Koln have only lost one match by more than one goal this season and Gisdol will be confident his side can at least avoid defeat against a side they finished above last season.
Werder Bremen Bundesliga form: LWWDDD
FC Koln Bundesliga form: LLLDDL
Team News
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Patrick Erras is missing for the hosts with a hamstring injury, while Ludwig Augustinsson (thigh), David Selke (groin) and Felix Agu (coronavirus) are also unavailable for selection.
Kohfeldt's most damaging absence is undoubtedly striker Niclas Fullkrug, though, who is nursing a calf injury. Bremen fans will be hoping he is fit after the international break and Sargent can remain amongst the goals against Koln.
The visitors, meanwhile, remain without Florian Kainz (knee) and Jonas Hector (knee) but otherwise have a full squad to choose from.
Gisdol will be demanding his side build on the positive performance against Bayern as they look to win their first match of the season against a side they finished above last season.
Werder Bremen possible starting lineup:
Pavienka; Veljkovic, Moisander, Friedl; Gebre Selassie, Gross, Eggestein, Mbom; Chong, Bittencourt; Sargent
FC Koln possible starting lineup:
T. Horn; Wolf, Bornauw, Czichos, J. Horn; Shkiri, Duda, Ozcan; Limnios, Andersson, Jakobs
We say: Werder Bremen 1-1 FC Koln
Despite sitting in the top half of the table, Bremen's performances have not been particularly impressive of late and we think Koln can nick something here.
Koln's goal difference of only negative five despite winning none and losing four of their six matches shows how competitive they have been in most of their matches, and they are due a bit of luck swinging their way. However, they may have to wait for a first win of the season, with another 1-1 draw for Bremen quite likely.
Top betting tip
Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data
Brett Curtis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Koln win with a probability of 39.1%. A win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 35.87% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Koln win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.47%) and 0-2 (6.18%). The likeliest Werder Bremen win was 2-1 (8.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood.
