Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund will both be looking to put midweek Champions League disappointments behind them when they go head to head in Bundesliga action at the Volkswagen Arena on Saturday afternoon.
The hosts fell to their first defeat under their new boss in Seville on Tuesday evening, whilst the visitors all but confirmed their failure to reach the knockout stages after losing in Lisbon on Wednesday.
Match preview
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Despite the setback in Spain in the week, Wolfsburg remain in a decent place under Florian Kohfeldt in recent weeks, with the German manager steadying the ship since his arrival at the helm in October.
The 2-0 defeat to Sevilla leaves the Wolves with only a slim chance of progressing to the knockout stages in Europe, with a win at home to Lille in a couple of weeks a must if they are to have any hope of getting past the group stage.
However, the domestic situation becomes the focus again at the weekend, and things are slightly more positive back home after picking up seven points from a possible nine under Kohfeldt.
Four straight defeats in all competitions were the final fixtures of predecessor Mark van Bommel, which came at the end of a total winless streak of eight matches, making the mini revival under the new man all the more important.
The most recent of Kohfeldt's tasks in the Bundesliga came at Arminia Bielefeld last weekend, where a quickfire double in the second half from Wout Weghorst and Lukas Nmecha rescued the Wolves from a desperate situation.
Nmecha's equaliser had extended his scoring run to four games in a row, coinciding with his manager's first four games in charge as well, but despite that streak coming to an end in Europe in midweek, the Germany international's scoring exploits will prove crucial again when they face a fellow European challenger on Saturday.
Kohfeldt will be aware of the tough challenge his Wolfsburg side face, and will be expecting a response from his players after being inflicted his first setback since taking over last time out.
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Meanwhile, Dortmund head to Wolfsburg on Saturday looking to put their dreadful European form behind them by continuing with the strong domestic form that sees them occupy second place in the table as things stand.
Seven points separate themselves and their opponents in sixth, whilst they continue to maintain the pressure on Bayern Munich at the summit following their surprise defeat last weekend.
A win could take BVB top, but realistically the three points would just enable Marco Rose's side to remain a single point behind the Bavarians, with them expected to win comfortably against Bielefeld at the Allianz Arena at the same time on Saturday.
Although Dortmund's league position is not surprising in general, their results and position in the table were expected to have been damaged to a greater extent than they have been during the absence of star man Erling Braut Haaland.
The Norwegian striker has only managed to feature in half of their 12 Bundesliga matchdays so far, and although his goals and presence up front have been sorely missed, his colleagues have continued to limp over the finishing line without him.
Perhaps the perfect example of this was their success at Signal Iduna Park last Saturday, with Dortmund narrowly defeating a struggling Stuttgart side by a 2-1 scoreline thanks to Marco Reus's goal five minutes from time.
The victory was yet another where Rose's men played far from their best and could not have argued too much had they not picked up the three points, and whilst they continue to share the goalscoring burden across the team, they will be desperate for the return of Haaland in the coming weeks to continue a consistent push for the title in the 2021-22 campaign.
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Team News
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Kohfeldt and Wolfsburg will welcome back two of their three-man back line on Saturday, with Maxence Lacroix returning from a two-match ban and Josuha Guilavogui shaking off his recent injury to come back in alongside John Brooks.
However, behind them will be second-choice goalkeeper Pavao Pervan once more, with first-choice Koen Casteels remaining absent due to COVID-19 for another week at least.
A trio of long-term absentees remain on the sidelines too, in the form of William, Xaver Schlager and Bartosz Bialek, whilst Renato Steffen is also out due to a calf injury.
As for the visitors, Haaland remains out for at least another couple of weeks yet, meaning Donyell Malen will continue to lead the line after scoring his second and third goals for the club in the last two matches.
Raphael Guerreiro looks set for another spell on the sidelines as well after pulling a muscle in the build up to their Champions League defeat in the week, meaning Nico Schulz will continue to fill in on the left side of defence.
Rose could well switch from a 4-2-3-1 to a three-man defence in order to match the Wolves, which would allow Mats Hummels to come back into the back line after sitting out in midweek due to suspension.
Roman Burki, Mateu Morey, Marcel Schmelzer, Marius Wolf, Giovanni Reyna, Thorgan Hazard and Youssoufa Moukoko make up the remainder of the lengthy injury list for Dortmund.
Wolfsburg possible starting lineup:
Pervan; Lacroix, Guilavogui, Brooks; Baku, Vrancx, Arnold, Roussillon; Gerhardt, Weghorst, L Nmecha
Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Kobel; Akanji, Hummels, Pongracic; Meunier, Bellingham, Witsel, Schulz; Reus, Malen, Brandt
We say: Wolfsburg 1-1 Borussia Dortmund
We are predicting these sides to cancel each other out in this one on Saturday, due to the similar situations they find themselves in in the build-up.
Neither are firing on all cylinders in front of goal in recent weeks, so although goals are usually expected in Dortmund's fixtures in particular, we can see this being a low-scoring affair at the Volkswagen Arena.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 50.03%. A win for Wolfsburg had a probability of 26.07% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.6%) and 0-2 (8.23%). The likeliest Wolfsburg win was 1-0 (6.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
