Emma Navarro's quest for a maiden Grand Slam final pits her against the best hard-court player on the women's tour, Aryna Sabalenka, in Thursday night's US Open semi-final.
The American was winless at Flushing Meadows coming into this year's tournament, only to outdo her expectations, and she takes on an opponent who dispatched Qinwen Zheng in 73 minutes on Tuesday night.
Match preview
© Imago
Although Navarro came into the 2024 US Open without having notched a victory in 2021 and last year, the 13th seed has stormed to a semi-final berth this year, dispatching defending champion Coco Gauff in the fourth round and two-time quarter-finalist Paula Badosa in the last round.
A three-set thriller was expected against Badosa in the last eight, and it seemed to be heading that way when the Spanish player opened a 5-1 lead in set two; however, the American had other ideas, winning 24 of the next 28 games to notch a 6-2, 7-5 win on Arthur Ashe.
Her history-making run has already seen her become the sixth player to advance to this stage despite never previously winning a match — joining Steffi Graf (1985), Venus Williams (1997), Yanina Wickmayer (2009), Bianca Andreescu (2019) and 2021 champion Emma Raducanu — and the second American since Jennifer Brady (2020) to debut at the last four of a Major in New York since the turn of the millennium.
Navarro has nothing to fear heading into her encounter with last year's runner-up, who she already defeated at Indian Wells earlier this year, with all the pressure on her opponent to make consecutive finals.
Her progression from reaching the third round Down Under in Australia, round four in Paris and the last eight at Wimbledon is admirable, now the 23-year-old seeks to take that progression up a notch by defeating a two-time Grand Slam champion.
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A gregarious Sabalenka offered to buy everyone drinks to have the crowd onside against the New York-born Navarro on Thursday, having witnessed partisan home support in her loss to Gauff in the 2023 final.
The two-time Australian Open champion has reached here winning the tune-up WTA 1000 event in Cincinnati without dropping a set and has let just one slip en route to a fourth consecutive semi-final at Flushing Meadows.
A slugfest was anticipated when the Belarusian and Zheng faced off in a rematch of last year's quarter-final and a repeat of the decider Down Under in Australia, only for the second seed to drop three games in her 6-1, 6-2 triumph against the No. 7 seed and Olympic gold medallist.
She has now become the first woman since Serena Williams (2015-2016) to advance to the last four in Australia and New York in consecutive years and her four semis on the trot fall two behind Williams's six in a row from 2011 to 2016.
An 81.4% win rate in hard-court Grand Slam events is the best among active players on the WTA Tour, underscoring her dominance on the surface and why she is the undoubted favourite against home hope Navarro.
Tournament so far
Emma Navarro:
First round: vs. Anna Blinkova 6-1 6-1
Second round: vs. Arantxa Rus 6-1 6-1
Third round: vs. Marta Kostyuk 6-4 4-6 6-3
Round of 16: vs. Coco Gauff 6-3 4-6 6-3
Quarter-final: vs. Paula Badosa 6-2 7-5
Aryna Sabalenka:
First round: vs. Priscilla Hon 6-3 6-3
Second round: vs. Lucia Bronzetti 6-3 6-1
Third round: vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova 2-6 6-1 6-2
Round of 16: vs. Elise Mertens 6-2 6-4
Quarter-final: vs. Qinwen Zheng 6-1 6-2
Head To Head
Indian Wells (2024) - Round of 16: Navarro 6-3 3-6 6-2
Roland Garros (2024) - Fourth round: Sabalenka 6-2 6-3
Navarro and Sabalenka are tied in their match-ups, splitting one win apiece heading into their last-four encounter in New York.
The American notably defeated her higher-ranked opponent at Indian Wells, their only hard-court meeting, before the No. 2 seed got her revenge at the French Open.
Thursday night will be their second battle at a Grand Slam.
We say: Sabalenka to win in three sets
Regardless of whatever has happened in the past, Sabalenka's hard-court know-how and experience of facing a partisan crowd should stand her in good stead against her American opponent as the second seed bids for a place in the final in back-to-back years.
