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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 66.16%. A draw had a probability of 19.3% and a win for Augsburg had a probability of 14.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.96%) and 2-1 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.07%), while for an Augsburg win it was 0-1 (4.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Freiburg would win this match.
Result | ||
Freiburg | Draw | Augsburg |
66.16% ( -0.68) | 19.26% ( 0.34) | 14.58% ( 0.34) |
Both teams to score 52.94% ( -0.3) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.48% ( -0.84) | 40.52% ( 0.84) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.1% ( -0.86) | 62.9% ( 0.86) |
Freiburg Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.59% ( -0.42) | 11.41% ( 0.42) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
63.83% ( -0.91) | 36.17% ( 0.91) |
Augsburg Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
59.76% ( -0.06) | 40.24% ( 0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
23.13% ( -0.05) | 76.87% ( 0.05) |
Score Analysis |
Freiburg | Draw | Augsburg |
2-0 @ 10.81% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 9.96% ( 0.21) 2-1 @ 9.85% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 7.83% ( -0.1) 3-1 @ 7.13% ( -0.1) 4-0 @ 4.25% ( -0.13) 4-1 @ 3.87% ( -0.12) 3-2 @ 3.24% ( -0.05) 5-0 @ 1.85% ( -0.09) 4-2 @ 1.76% ( -0.06) 5-1 @ 1.68% ( -0.08) Other @ 3.94% Total : 66.15% | 1-1 @ 9.07% ( 0.18) 0-0 @ 4.59% ( 0.17) 2-2 @ 4.48% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.13% Total : 19.26% | 0-1 @ 4.18% ( 0.15) 1-2 @ 4.13% ( 0.08) 0-2 @ 1.9% ( 0.07) 2-3 @ 1.36% 1-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.76% Total : 14.58% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 89 | 24 | 65 | 90 |
2 | Stuttgart | 34 | 23 | 4 | 7 | 78 | 39 | 39 | 73 |
3 | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 23 | 3 | 8 | 94 | 45 | 49 | 72 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 77 | 39 | 38 | 65 |
5 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 68 | 43 | 25 | 63 |
6 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 51 | 50 | 1 | 47 |
7 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 66 | 66 | 0 | 46 |
8 | Heidenheim | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 50 | 55 | -5 | 42 |
9 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 48 | 54 | -6 | 42 |
10 | Freiburg | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 45 | 58 | -13 | 42 |
11 | Augsburg | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 50 | 60 | -10 | 39 |
12 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 41 | 56 | -15 | 37 |
13 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 7 | 14 | 13 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 35 |
14 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 56 | 67 | -11 | 34 |
15 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 33 | 58 | -25 | 33 |
16 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 42 | 74 | -32 | 33 |
R | FC Koln | 34 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 28 | 60 | -32 | 27 |
R | SV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt | 34 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 30 | 86 | -56 | 17 |
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