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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 78%. A draw had a probability of 12.7% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 9.34%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 3-1 with a probability of 8.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.9%) and 3-0 (7.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.07%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (2.67%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.
Result | ||
Ajax | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
78% ( 2.54) | 12.65% ( -1.32) | 9.34% ( -1.22) |
Both teams to score 62.29% ( 1.08) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
78.62% ( 3.14) | 21.38% ( -3.14) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
59.96% ( 4.25) | 40.03% ( -4.25) |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
95.57% ( 1.03) | 4.42% ( -1.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
81.79% ( 3.09) | 18.21% ( -3.09) |
SBV Excelsior Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.16% ( 0.43) | 34.83% ( -0.43) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.43% ( 0.45) | 71.56% ( -0.45) |
Score Analysis |
Ajax | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
3-1 @ 8.21% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 7.9% ( -0.58) 3-0 @ 7.79% ( -0.1) 2-0 @ 7.49% ( -0.64) 4-1 @ 6.4% ( 0.42) 4-0 @ 6.07% ( 0.33) 1-0 @ 4.8% ( -0.79) 3-2 @ 4.33% ( 0.04) 5-1 @ 3.99% ( 0.51) 5-0 @ 3.79% ( 0.45) 4-2 @ 3.38% ( 0.26) 5-2 @ 2.11% ( 0.29) 6-1 @ 2.08% ( 0.39) 6-0 @ 1.97% ( 0.35) 4-3 @ 1.19% ( 0.1) 6-2 @ 1.1% ( 0.22) 7-1 @ 0.93% ( 0.22) Other @ 4.5% Total : 78% | 1-1 @ 5.07% ( -0.76) 2-2 @ 4.17% ( -0.25) 0-0 @ 1.54% ( -0.38) 3-3 @ 1.52% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.36% Total : 12.65% | 1-2 @ 2.67% ( -0.37) 0-1 @ 1.62% ( -0.38) 2-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.12) Other @ 2.64% Total : 9.34% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 34 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 111 | 21 | 90 | 91 |
2 | Feyenoord | 34 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 92 | 26 | 66 | 84 |
3 | FC Twente | 34 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 69 | 36 | 33 | 69 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 70 | 39 | 31 | 65 |
5 | Ajax | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 74 | 61 | 13 | 56 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 68 | 51 | 17 | 53 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 49 | 47 | 2 | 50 |
8 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 48 | 3 | 49 |
9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 47 | 46 | 1 | 46 |
10 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 37 | 56 | -19 | 38 |
11 | Heerenveen | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 53 | 70 | -17 | 37 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 45 | 67 | -22 | 36 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 34 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 33 | 59 | -26 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 33 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 38 | 56 | -18 | 29 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 50 | 73 | -23 | 29 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 34 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 34 | 88 | -54 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 34 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 30 | 74 | -44 | 6 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |