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La Liga | Gameweek 5
Sep 16, 2023 at 3.15pm UK
Estadio de Mestalla
Atletico Madrid logo

Valencia
3 - 0
Atletico

Duro (5', 34'), Guerra (54')
Mamardashvili (56')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Hermoso (23'), Llorente (36'), Griezmann (37'), Niguez (74'), Barrios (86')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's La Liga clash between Valencia and Atletico Madrid, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Alaves 1-0 Valencia
Saturday, September 2 at 5.30pm in La Liga

We said: Valencia 0-1 Atletico Madrid

Atletico were stunning against Rayo last time out, and while we are not predicting a similar outcome here, the capital giants should have enough quality to secure another three points against a Valencia side that have been disappointing in their last two matches. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 42.13%. A win for Valencia had a probability of 31.16% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.7%) and 0-2 (7.63%). The likeliest Valencia win was 1-0 (9.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.

Result
ValenciaDrawAtletico Madrid
31.16% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01) 26.71% (-0.0030000000000001 -0) 42.13% (0.015999999999998 0.02)
Both teams to score 50.76% (0.012999999999998 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.91% (0.016999999999996 0.02)54.09% (-0.013999999999996 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.49% (0.012999999999998 0.01)75.52% (-0.01100000000001 -0.01)
Valencia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.02% (0.0030000000000001 0)31.98%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.56%68.44% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.62% (0.016999999999996 0.02)25.38% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.82% (0.022999999999996 0.02)60.19% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Valencia 31.16%
    Atletico Madrid 42.12%
    Draw 26.71%
ValenciaDrawAtletico Madrid
1-0 @ 9.25% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
2-1 @ 7.23% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
2-0 @ 5.28% (-0.0029999999999992 -0)
3-1 @ 2.75%
3-0 @ 2.01% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
3-2 @ 1.89% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.76%
Total : 31.16%
1-1 @ 12.68% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 8.12% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
2-2 @ 4.96% (0.0019999999999998 0)
Other @ 0.95%
Total : 26.71%
0-1 @ 11.12% (-0.010000000000002 -0.01)
1-2 @ 8.7% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-2 @ 7.63% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-3 @ 3.98% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-3 @ 3.49% (0.0020000000000002 0)
2-3 @ 2.27% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-4 @ 1.36% (0.002 0)
0-4 @ 1.2% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.38%
Total : 42.12%

How you voted: Valencia vs Atletico

Valencia
8.5%
Draw
6.4%
Atletico Madrid
85.1%
47
Head to Head
Mar 18, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 26
Atletico
3-0
Valencia
Griezmann (23'), Carrasco (49'), Lemar (67')
Aug 29, 2022 9pm
Gameweek 3
Valencia
0-1
Atletico

Maranhao (18'), Gattuso (26'), Correia (42'), Comert (76'), Perez (83')
Griezmann (66')
Niguez (14'), Simeone (26'), Mandava (27'), Felix (55')
Jan 22, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 22
Atletico
3-2
Valencia
Cunha (64'), Correa (90+1'), Hermoso (90+3')
Koke (27'), Hermoso (37'), Suarez (82'), Herrera (84'), Gimenez (90+3')
Musah (25'), Duro (44')
Correia (14'), Foulquier (37'), Musah (43'), Guillamon (61'), Lato (65'), Domenech (83')
Nov 7, 2021 3.15pm
Gameweek 13
Valencia
3-3
Atletico
Savic (50' og.), Duro (90+2', 90+6')
Guillamon (76'), Musah (90+4')
Suarez (35'), Griezmann (58'), Vrsaljko (62')
Carrasco (90'), Griezmann (90+5')
Jan 24, 2021 8pm
Gameweek 20
Atletico
3-1
Valencia
Felix (23'), Suarez (54'), Correa (72')
Vrsaljko (30'), Savic (76')
Racic (11')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CReal Madrid38298187266195
2Barcelona38267579443585
3GironaGirona38256785463981
4Atletico MadridAtletico382441070432776
5Athletic Bilbao381911861372468
6Real Sociedad3816121051391260
7Real BetisBetis38141594845357
8Villarreal381411136565053
9Valencia381310154045-549
10AlavesAlaves381210163646-1046
11Osasuna38129174556-1145
12Getafe381013154254-1243
13Celta Vigo381011174657-1141
14Sevilla381011174854-641
15Mallorca38816143344-1140
16Las PalmasLas Palmas381010183347-1440
17Rayo Vallecano38814162948-1938
RCadizCadiz38615172655-2933
RAlmeria38312234375-3221
RGranada3849253879-4121


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