Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Western United win with a probability of 41.57%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 34.62% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Western United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.39%) and 2-0 (6.01%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 1-2 (7.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.82%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Adelaide United would win this match.
Result | ||
Western United | Draw | Adelaide United |
41.57% ( 0.54) | 23.81% ( -0.06) | 34.62% ( -0.47) |
Both teams to score 61.78% ( 0.1) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.7% ( 0.19) | 40.3% ( -0.18) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.33% ( 0.19) | 62.67% ( -0.18) |
Western United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.33% ( 0.32) | 19.67% ( -0.32) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48.34% ( 0.52) | 51.66% ( -0.51) |
Adelaide United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.91% ( -0.17) | 23.09% ( 0.18) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.06% ( -0.25) | 56.94% ( 0.26) |
Score Analysis |
Western United | Draw | Adelaide United |
2-1 @ 8.8% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 7.39% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 6.01% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 4.77% ( 0.08) 3-2 @ 3.5% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 3.26% ( 0.07) 4-1 @ 1.94% ( 0.05) 4-2 @ 1.42% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 1.32% ( 0.04) Other @ 3.17% Total : 41.57% | 1-1 @ 10.82% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 6.45% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.54% ( -0.04) 3-3 @ 1.71% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.28% Total : 23.8% | 1-2 @ 7.93% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 6.66% ( -0.09) 0-2 @ 4.88% ( -0.09) 1-3 @ 3.88% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 3.15% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.38% ( -0.06) 1-4 @ 1.42% ( -0.03) 2-4 @ 1.16% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.16% Total : 34.62% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 27 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 49 | 27 | 22 | 55 |
2 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 27 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 53 |
3 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 27 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 43 | 33 | 10 | 42 |
4 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 41 |
5 | Macarthur | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 41 |
6 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 38 | 12 | 39 |
7 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 37 |
8 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 52 | 53 | -1 | 32 |
9 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 30 |
10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 28 |
11 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 26 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 22 |
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