Saturday's La Liga action kicks off with a relegation scrap between Alaves and Cadiz at the Estadio Mendizorrotza.
Alaves, who have never beaten Cadiz in La Liga, could find themselves bottom of the division if they fail to pick up three points this weekend and other results go against them.
Match preview
© Reuters
Alaves come into this match on the back of four consecutive league defeats, a run that has seen them concede 13 goals in the process.
Alaves have now lost seven out of the nine league games played under Abelardo. El Glorioso fans may well remember that it was a defeat against Cadiz that spelled the end for former boss Pablo Machin.
Against Real Betis last time out, 19th-placed Alaves were unlucky not to come away with more to show for their efforts. Abelardo's men led the Andalusian outfit by two goals at half time. However, Betis clawed their way back into the tie and eventually won 3-2.
Following the end of the 90 minutes, Abelardo told the press that it was a "lack of concentration" that lost his side the lead.
While Abelardo will be desperately targeting three points this weekend, the odds are not in his side's favour; El Glorioso have lost four of their last five home games in the league.
© Reuters
Prior to their victory over Eibar last weekend, Cadiz were beginning to look like a team in trouble following a dismal run of results where they picked up just one point in six games.
However, a 1-0 win courtesy of their evergreen veteran Alvaro Negredo went a long way in terms of putting some distance between Andalusia's Yellow Submarine and the dreaded relegation zone.
Negredo's contribution to Cadiz's success has been invaluable so far in the current campaign. The former Manchester City poacher has been directly involved in almost half of Cadiz's La Liga goals this season.
Currently 14th in the standings, Cadiz could climb as high as 12th with a win over Alaves this weekend.
Cadiz boss Alvaro Cervera will take confidence from the fact that Cadiz have won two of their last three away games against Basque sides in the league.
- D
- W
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- D
- L
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Abelardo has been fortunate that during his time at the club he has not had to concern himself with many high-profile injuries.
Defenders Javi Lopez, Abdel Abqar and Rodrigo Ely are all unavailable for this tie due to injury.
Likewise, Cervera does not have any major treatment table crises at the moment. However, the Cadiz boss will still be without defender Fali for this fixture.
Other absentees include Carlos Akapo and Luismi Quezada, who are recovering from respective knee and muscle injuries.
Alaves possible starting lineup:
Pacheco; Navarro, Laguardia, Lejeune, Duarte; Pellistri, Battaglia, Manu Garcia, Rioja; Joselu, Edgar Mendez
Cadiz possible starting lineup:
Ledesma; Carcelen, Mauro, Cala, Espino; Salvi, Jonsson, Mari, Fernandez; Negredo, Sobrino
We say: Alaves 0-1 Cadiz
This is not exactly a game between two of La Liga's most prominent sides so do not expect a display of fine football. We think Cadiz will come out on top after a scrappy 90 minutes, but the margins will be fine.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cadiz win with a probability of 34.85%. A win for Alaves had a probability of 33.66% and a draw had a probability of 31.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cadiz win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (6.92%) and 1-2 (6.61%). The likeliest Alaves win was 1-0 (13.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (14.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood.
