Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 51.39%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 24.43% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.65%) and 2-0 (8.91%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 (6.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.47%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
Result | ||
Villarreal | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
51.39% ( 0.26) | 24.18% ( -0.11) | 24.43% ( -0.15) |
Both teams to score 53.83% ( 0.21) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.21% ( 0.35) | 47.79% ( -0.35) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.02% ( 0.32) | 69.98% ( -0.32) |
Villarreal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.41% ( 0.23) | 18.59% ( -0.24) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
50.12% ( 0.39) | 49.87% ( -0.4) |
Rayo Vallecano Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.12% ( 0.06) | 33.88% ( -0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.45% ( 0.07) | 70.55% ( -0.07) |
Score Analysis |
Villarreal | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
1-0 @ 10.59% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 9.65% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.91% ( 0) 3-1 @ 5.41% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 5% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.93% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 2.28% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 2.1% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 1.23% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.28% Total : 51.38% | 1-1 @ 11.47% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 6.3% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 5.22% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.06% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.18% | 0-1 @ 6.82% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 6.21% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 3.69% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 2.24% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.88% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.33% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.26% Total : 24.43% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Madrid | 33 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 71 | 22 | 49 | 84 |
2 | Barcelona | 33 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 68 | 39 | 29 | 73 |
3 | GironaGirona | 33 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 69 | 40 | 29 | 71 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 33 | 20 | 4 | 9 | 62 | 39 | 23 | 64 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 55 | 33 | 22 | 61 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 33 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 46 | 35 | 11 | 51 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 33 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 41 | 39 | 2 | 49 |
8 | Valencia | 33 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 47 |
9 | Villarreal | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 54 | 55 | -1 | 45 |
10 | Getafe | 34 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 41 | 47 | -6 | 43 |
11 | Osasuna | 33 | 11 | 6 | 16 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 39 |
12 | AlavesAlaves | 33 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 38 |
13 | Sevilla | 33 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 42 | 46 | -4 | 38 |
14 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 37 |
15 | Rayo Vallecano | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 27 | 42 | -15 | 34 |
16 | Mallorca | 33 | 6 | 14 | 13 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 32 |
17 | Celta Vigo | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 31 |
18 | CadizCadiz | 33 | 4 | 14 | 15 | 23 | 46 | -23 | 26 |
19 | Granada | 33 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 36 | 61 | -25 | 21 |
R | Almeria | 33 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 32 | 67 | -35 | 14 |
> La Liga Full Table |