Atletico Madrid will be looking to make it back-to-back victories in La Liga when they continue their domestic campaign against Valencia at Mestalla on Sunday afternoon.
Diego Simeone's side are currently fourth in the table, three points behind leaders Real Sociedad, while Valencia occupy 10th, having picked up 16 points from their opening 12 matches of 2021-22.
Match preview
© Reuters
Valencia have won four, drawn four and lost four of their 12 league fixtures this season to collect 16 points, which has left them in 10th position in the table, six points behind their opponents this weekend.
Los Che have been a good watch this term, finding the back of the net on 18 occasions, which is more than Barcelona (16) and Real Sociedad (17), and the same as Atletico, but they have conceded 17 times, which is the fourth-worst defensive record in the division at this stage.
Jose Bordalas's side made a positive start to the season but went on a seven-game winless run in the league between September 19 and October 27 before beating Villarreal at Mestalla last weekend.
Indeed, goals from Hugo Guillamon and Carlos Soler secured an important three points for Valencia, who now have two tough games either side of the international break against Atletico and Real Sociedad.
The six-time Spanish champions finished down in 13th in La Liga last term and will be looking to find some level of consistency in the coming months in order to push towards the top seven.
© Reuters
Atletico's brief for the 2021-22 La Liga season is clear, defend their title, but it would be fair to say that it has been a mixed start to the campaign for Simeone's team, who are currently fourth in the table.
A record of six wins, four draws and one defeat has brought the reigning champions 22 points, leaving them three points off leaders Real Sociedad, who have played a game more.
Atletico were impressive against Real Betis at Wanda Metropolitano last weekend, with Yannick Carrasco and Joao Felix on the scoresheet in a 3-0 victory, which followed back-to-back draws in Spain's top flight.
The Red and Whites will enter Sunday's match off the back of a disappointing result, though, as they lost 2-0 at Liverpool in the Champions League on Wednesday, which has left them in third spot in Group B and facing a battle to reach the knockout round of the competition.
Atletico have been victorious in their last two league games against Valencia, including a 1-0 win in the corresponding match last term, while they are unbeaten against Los Che in La Liga since October 2014.
- D
- D
- L
- D
- L
- W
- W
- L
- W
- D
- D
- W
- W
- L
- D
- D
- W
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Valencia will be without the services of Gabriel Paulista, Maxi Gomez, Denis Cheryshev and Toni Lato for Sunday's contest with the reigning Spanish champions.
Soler came off the bench to score in the win over Villarreal last weekend, though, and the fit-again midfielder is expected to be in the home side's starting XI on Sunday.
Mouctar Diakhaby should replace Paulista in the middle of the defence, while Marcos Andre could move into a front two alongside Goncalo Guedes, with Helder Costa retaining his spot in a wide area.
As for Atletico, Marcos Llorente will miss out through injury, while Geoffrey Kondogbia and Thomas Lemar are also expected to be unavailable for selection on Sunday.
Antoine Griezmann was suspended against Liverpool but should return to the starting XI here, while fit-again Stefan Savic could replace Felipe, who was sent off at Anfield last time out.
Rodrigo De Paul should again line up alongside Koke in the middle of the park, with Felix and Luis Suarez retaining their spots in the final third of the field.
Valencia possible starting lineup:
Cillessen; Foulquier, Diakhaby, Alderete, Gaya; Soler, Wass, Guillamon, Costa; Guedes, Andre
Atletico Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Savic, Gimenez, Hermoso; Trippier, Koke, De Paul, Carrasco; Felix, Suarez, Griezmann
We say: Valencia 1-2 Atletico Madrid
Atletico will be desperate to bounce back from Wednesday's European disappointment, and we are backing the La Liga champions to triumph at Mestalla. Valencia have had much longer to prepare for the match but have struggled in their recent games with Atletico, who should have enough to pick up all three points.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 50.44%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Valencia had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.62%) and 1-2 (9.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.15%), while for a Valencia win it was 1-0 (7.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.
