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Reading logo
Championship | Gameweek 40
Jun 30, 2020 at 6pm UK
Madejski Stadium
Brentford logo

Reading
0 - 3
Brentford

FT(HT: 0-1)
Mbeumo (23'), Dasilva (64'), Valencia (90')
Jansson (67')

Preview: Reading vs. Brentford - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Championship fixture between Reading and Brentford, including team news and predicted lineups.

Brentford make the trip to the Madejski Stadium to face Reading with the opportunity to move to within two points of second-placed West Bromwich Albion.

Meanwhile, after failing to win either of their last two games, Reading play host the Bees on Tuesday evening only sitting seven points above the Championship relegation zone.


Match preview

Brentford manager Thomas Frank on January 11, 2020© Reuters

Having recorded just four points from four games before the start of the coronavirus pandemic, Thomas Frank may have felt that his side had little chance of achieving automatic promotion to the Premier League.

However, back-to-back triumphs over rivals Fulham and West Bromwich Albion have left Brentford in a position where they have considerable momentum at a crucial period of the season.

Playing a day earlier than West Brom provides Brentford with the chance to move to within touching distance of second spot, a position which at one stage appeared guaranteed to remain in the grasp of the Baggies and Leeds United.

With a favourable schedule, everything is in place for the London outfit to end the campaign on a high, something which will be achieved more easily if Ollie Watkins can build on his goal versus the Baggies.

That strike ended a three-game wait for his 23rd goal at the second tier since the beginning of August and reaching 30 - last achieved by Glenn Murray in 2012-13 - may prove pivotal when it comes to gatecrashing the top two.

Despite sitting in mid-table over the enforced break, Mark Bowen would have felt that Reading remained with an outside shout of claiming the final playoff spot.

However, failing to defeat either Stoke City or Derby County has left the Royals 11 points adrift of Cardiff City, realistically putting the club in a position where they will have to win each of their last seven games just to remain in contention.

Instead, Bowen will now be placing priority on avoiding being dragged into a relegation battle with the Berkshire outfit now only seven points above 22nd place.

Although two more wins should prove more than enough, Reading still face four fixtures against clubs below them, a scenario which will ensure that they remain under pressure until mathematically ensuring that they cannot drop down to League One.

Reading Championship form: LLWWDL

Brentford Championship form: DLDWWW


Team News

Reading defender Matt Miazga pictured in November 2019© Reuters

After his dismissal on the full-time whistle against Derby, Reading centre-back Matt Miazga will serve the first of his three-match suspension.

Sam Baldock could get the nod in attack over George Puscas, who has failed to impress in both games since the resumption.

With an extra day of preparation, Brentford boss Frank will keep changes down to a minimum.

Having been introduced as a substitute on his first game back after testing positive for coronavirus, Bryan Mbeumo should feature on the right flank.

Reading possible starting lineup:
Cabral; Gunter, Moore, Morrison, Richards; Swift, Rinomhota; Meite, Olise, Ejaria; Baldock

Brentford possible starting lineup:
Martin; Dalsgaard, Pinnock, Jansson, Henry; Marcondes, Norgaard, Dasilva; Mbeumo, Watkins, Benrahma


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Reading 1-3 Brentford

Although Reading are under pressure to respond from the weekend's setback, we feel that Brentford will continue their promotion charge. While the home side have the potential to make things competitive, Brentford's attack should have too much for a backline missing one of its key figures.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brentford win with a probability of 55.78%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Reading had a probability of 20.65%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brentford win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.17%) and 1-2 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.21%), while for a Reading win it was 1-0 (6.43%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brentford would win this match.


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Brentford manager Thomas Frank on January 11, 2020
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