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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 38.57%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 37.51% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.1%) and 0-2 (5.52%). The likeliest Ajax win was 2-1 (8.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for AZ Alkmaar.
Result | ||
Ajax | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
37.51% ( 0.7) | 23.91% ( 0.19) | 38.57% ( -0.89) |
Both teams to score 61.82% ( -0.66) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.59% ( -0.87) | 40.41% ( 0.87) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.21% ( -0.9) | 62.79% ( 0.9) |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.36% ( -0.04) | 21.63% ( 0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.25% ( -0.05) | 54.75% ( 0.05) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.89% ( -0.8) | 21.11% ( 0.8) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.05% ( -1.26) | 53.94% ( 1.26) |
Score Analysis |
Ajax | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
2-1 @ 8.32% ( 0.11) 1-0 @ 6.99% ( 0.27) 2-0 @ 5.35% ( 0.2) 3-1 @ 4.25% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 3.3% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 2.73% ( 0.1) 4-1 @ 1.63% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.27% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.05% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.63% Total : 37.51% | 1-1 @ 10.87% ( 0.16) 2-2 @ 6.47% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 4.57% ( 0.18) 3-3 @ 1.71% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.28% Total : 23.91% | 1-2 @ 8.46% ( -0.08) 0-1 @ 7.1% ( 0.11) 0-2 @ 5.52% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 4.39% ( -0.15) 2-3 @ 3.36% ( -0.12) 0-3 @ 2.86% ( -0.1) 1-4 @ 1.71% ( -0.1) 2-4 @ 1.31% ( -0.08) 0-4 @ 1.11% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.76% Total : 38.57% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 33 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 108 | 20 | 88 | 88 |
2 | Feyenoord | 33 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 88 | 26 | 62 | 81 |
3 | FC Twente | 33 | 20 | 6 | 7 | 67 | 35 | 32 | 66 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 67 | 36 | 31 | 64 |
5 | Ajax | 33 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 72 | 59 | 13 | 55 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 33 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 64 | 50 | 14 | 50 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 46 | 44 | 2 | 49 |
8 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 49 | 47 | 2 | 46 |
9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 37 | 56 | -19 | 37 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 44 | 65 | -21 | 36 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 32 | 55 | -23 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 33 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 32 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 29 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 33 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 50 | 69 | -19 | 29 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 33 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 33 | 86 | -53 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 28 | 72 | -44 | 5 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |