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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Twente win with a probability of 53.74%. A win for Almere City had a probability of 23.3% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Twente win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.6%) and 0-2 (8.74%). The likeliest Almere City win was 2-1 (6.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Twente would win this match.
Result | ||
Almere City | Draw | FC Twente |
23.3% ( 0.34) | 22.96% ( 0.18) | 53.74% ( -0.52) |
Both teams to score 56.51% ( -0.18) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.38% ( -0.43) | 43.62% ( 0.44) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.99% ( -0.43) | 66.01% ( 0.43) |
Almere City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.42% ( 0.06) | 32.58% ( -0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.88% ( 0.07) | 69.12% ( -0.07) |
FC Twente Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.81% ( -0.34) | 16.19% ( 0.34) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.34% ( -0.62) | 45.66% ( 0.62) |
Score Analysis |
Almere City | Draw | FC Twente |
2-1 @ 6.04% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 5.91% ( 0.12) 2-0 @ 3.32% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 2.26% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 2.06% ( 0) 3-0 @ 1.24% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.48% Total : 23.3% | 1-1 @ 10.76% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 5.5% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.27% ( 0.1) 3-3 @ 1.25% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.17% Total : 22.95% | 1-2 @ 9.81% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 9.6% ( 0.07) 0-2 @ 8.74% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 5.95% ( -0.08) 0-3 @ 5.31% ( -0.08) 2-3 @ 3.34% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 2.71% ( -0.07) 0-4 @ 2.42% ( -0.07) 2-4 @ 1.52% ( -0.04) 1-5 @ 0.99% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.36% Total : 53.74% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 33 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 108 | 20 | 88 | 88 |
2 | Feyenoord | 33 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 88 | 26 | 62 | 81 |
3 | FC Twente | 33 | 20 | 6 | 7 | 67 | 35 | 32 | 66 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 67 | 36 | 31 | 64 |
5 | Ajax | 33 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 72 | 59 | 13 | 55 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 33 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 64 | 50 | 14 | 50 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 46 | 44 | 2 | 49 |
8 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 49 | 47 | 2 | 46 |
9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 37 | 56 | -19 | 37 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 44 | 65 | -21 | 36 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 32 | 55 | -23 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 33 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 32 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 29 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 33 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 50 | 69 | -19 | 29 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 33 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 33 | 86 | -53 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 28 | 72 | -44 | 5 |
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