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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 80.65%. A draw had a probability of 13% and a win for Almere City had a probability of 6.37%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.73%) and 1-0 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.18%), while for an Almere City win it was 0-1 (2.31%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 4-1 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for AZ Alkmaar.
Result | ||
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Almere City |
80.65% ( -0.16) | 12.99% ( 0.13) | 6.37% ( 0.03) |
Both teams to score 43.42% ( -0.39) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
64.12% ( -0.57) | 35.88% ( 0.58) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
42.03% ( -0.63) | 57.97% ( 0.64) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
93.11% ( -0.15) | 6.89% ( 0.15) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
74.68% ( -0.41) | 25.33% ( 0.41) |
Almere City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
46.63% ( -0.34) | 53.37% ( 0.34) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
13.12% ( -0.22) | 86.88% ( 0.22) |
Score Analysis |
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Almere City |
2-0 @ 13.15% ( 0.16) 3-0 @ 11.73% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 9.84% ( 0.2) 2-1 @ 8.26% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 7.85% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 7.37% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 4.93% ( -0.07) 5-0 @ 4.2% ( -0.05) 5-1 @ 2.64% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 2.31% ( -0.04) 6-0 @ 1.87% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 1.55% ( -0.04) 6-1 @ 1.18% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.78% Total : 80.64% | 1-1 @ 6.18% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 3.68% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 2.59% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.54% Total : 12.99% | 0-1 @ 2.31% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 1.94% Other @ 2.12% Total : 6.37% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 32 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 107 | 19 | 88 | 87 |
2 | Feyenoord | 32 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 85 | 24 | 61 | 78 |
3 | FC Twente | 32 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 60 | 33 | 27 | 63 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 64 | 36 | 28 | 61 |
5 | Ajax | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 69 | 59 | 10 | 52 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 62 | 47 | 15 | 50 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 46 | 43 | 3 | 49 |
8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 43 |
9 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 48 | 47 | 1 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 51 | 65 | -14 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 36 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 43 | 64 | -21 | 35 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 32 | 9 | 5 | 18 | 41 | 70 | -29 | 32 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 28 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 26 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 32 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 31 | 79 | -48 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 25 | 71 | -46 | 2 |
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