After a convincing win over their Austrian opposition last week, it is hard to look past Villarreal for this one, even after their uninspiring defeat to Real Sociedad on the weekend.
With home advantage for Austria Vienna, however, and needing to protect their goal difference, we are expecting to see a slightly more competitive affair.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 43.66%. A win for Austria Vienna had a probability of 28.65% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.57%) and 0-2 (8.45%). The likeliest Austria Vienna win was 1-0 (9.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Villarreal in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Villarreal.
0.2) 
-0.23) 
