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Fleetwood Town
League One | Gameweek 43
Apr 15, 2022 at 3pm UK
Highbury Stadium
Oxford United

Fleetwood
2 - 3
Oxford Utd

Harrison (39' pen.), Hayes (53')
Harrison (52')
FT(HT: 1-3)
Holland (2'), Brannagan (7'), Bodin (16')
Brannagan (71'), Stevens (90+6')

Preview: Fleetwood Town vs. Oxford United - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Friday's League One clash between Fleetwood Town and Oxford United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Fleetwood Town will aim to increase the distance between themselves and the relegation zone in the League One table when Oxford United make the journey to Highbury Stadium on Good Friday.

The hosts fell to a 2-1 defeat to Accrington Stanley last time out, while Oxford lost by the same scoreline at home to playoff rivals Sunderland.


Match preview

Stringing together a three-game unbeaten run before the visit of Accrington Stanley set Fleetwood up well for another pivotal battle in the relegation dogfight, but a second-half capitulation prevented Stephen Crainey's side from making it four on their own turf.

Fleetwood went into the break one goal to the good courtesy of Ellis Harrison's effort, but Sean McConville levelled for Accrington Stanley not long after before the hosts' 10 men fell to a stoppage-time winner from Michael Nottingham.

The Cod Army had already used their three substitutions by the time goalkeeper Alex Cairns was given a straight red card in the 85th minute, with midfielder Callum Camps forced to deputise in between the sticks for the final few moments and ultimately conceding the winner.

With only one win under their belt from their last 16 in League One, Fleetwood continue to flirt with danger as they sit 19th in the rankings - level with Morecambe and Gillingham but with a game in hand on both of their relegation rivals.

All eyes will be on the relegation six-pointer with Gillingham taking place next Monday, but for now, Fleetwood must simply focus on ending a seven-game winless run at the Highbury Stadium stretching all the way back to January 15.

Oxford United manager Karl Robinson pictured in October 2019© Reuters

It was a similar story for Oxford United - who are jostling for position at the other end of the standings - in last week's fixtures, as Sunderland boosted their own prospects of a playoff place while denting the top-six aspirations of Karl Robinson's side.

Oxford found their way back into the game through centre-back Elliott Moore in the first half after the Black Cats had gone ahead through Corry Evans, but a late strike bedevilled them too, as Elliot Embleton came off the bench to win it for Sunderland in the 89th minute.

The eighth-placed visitors do only have a four-point gap to make up to the playoff spots, which is by no means insurmountable, but most of the teams above them boast a game in hand and are enjoying resilient unbeaten streaks while Oxford struggle for form.

Robinson's side have now suffered three defeats on the bounce following the loss to Sunderland and must also take on automatic promotion hopefuls Rotherham United before the season is over, so another shot at Championship football may have to wait for another 12 months.

The U's have also suffered three defeats from their last four away from home, but they did run out comfortable 3-1 winners over Fleetwood earlier in the season and ought to view Friday's clash as a prime opportunity to reignite a late top-six push.

Fleetwood Town League One form:
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • L

Oxford United League One form:
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • L



Team News

Oxford United's manager Karl Robinson pictured with Cameron Brannagan on March 2, 2021© Reuters

Fleetwood number one Cairns was given his marching orders after handling outside the area against Accrington Stanley and is now suspended, so Kieran O'Hara will act as the last line of defence here.

Anthony Pilkington felt tightness in his hamstring last time out and was taken off at half time as a precaution, but Gerard Garner could now miss the rest of the season after suffering a serious hamstring issue of his own in the Accrington Stanley defeat.

Garner being stretchered off could hand Josh Harrop an opportunity in the number 10 role, while Cian Hayes and Daniel Butterworth are other alternative options in the final third.

In contrast, Oxford did not pick up any fresh injury worries in their recent defeat, and Cameron Brannagan was fit to return to the midfield after suffering a head injury in training.

Moore returned from illness with a bang in the Sunderland loss and was fine to partner Luke McNally despite his broken nose, while Sam Baldock and Marcus Browne are still struggling with knee and hamstring issues respectively.

Robinson refused to criticise his team's attitude after the loss to Sunderland, so the same XI could very well take to the field in a bid to avoid a fourth straight league defeat.

Fleetwood Town possible starting lineup:
O'Hara; Nsiala, Clarke, Jules; Johnson, Batty, Camps, Lane; Harrop; Butterworth, Harrington

Oxford United possible starting lineup:
Stevens; Long, Moore, McNally, Brown; Bodin, Kane, Brannagan; Sykes, Taylor, Holland


SM words green background

We say: Fleetwood Town 1-1 Oxford United

Fleetwood have been the draw specialists at home turf in recent weeks, and we would not put it past the hosts to record another stalemate against an Oxford side whose confidence keeps on taking hit after hit.

The U's are sure to take advantage of Fleetwood's recent absentee issues, but Crainey's side still have plenty to fight for and are capable of holding their out-of-sorts visitors to a draw here.


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford United win with a probability of 51.96%. A win for Fleetwood Town had a probability of 24.52% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Oxford United win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.72%) and 0-2 (8.58%). The likeliest Fleetwood Town win was 1-0 (6.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Oxford United would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Fleetwood vs Oxford Utd

Fleetwood Town
40.0%
Draw
6.7%
Oxford United
53.3%
15
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RFleetwood TownFleetwood461013234972-2343
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