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J1 League | Gameweek 20
Jul 8, 2023 at 11.30am UK
Ekimae Real Estate Stadium (Tosu)

Sagan Tosu
2 - 1
Cerezo

Horigome (64'), Togashi (90+3')
Iwasaki (39'), Horigome (79')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Ceara (13')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's J1 League clash between Sagan Tosu and Cerezo Osaka, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sagan Tosu

All competitions
Last Game: Sagan Tosu 1-2 Urawa
Saturday, July 1 at 11am in J1 League

Cerezo Osaka

All competitions
Last Game: Cerezo 0-1 Avispa Fukuoka
Friday, June 30 at 11am in J1 League

We said: Sagan Tosu 1-1 Cerezo Osaka

 Despite both sides tasting defeat last week, they have both had solid records in recent weeks, so we can see this one being a closely-fought contest. The two sides have scored and conceded a similar amount of goals so far this campaign, suggesting that there is not a lot to split the teams. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerezo Osaka win with a probability of 39.21%. A win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 34.25% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cerezo Osaka win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (6.85%). The likeliest Sagan Tosu win was 1-0 (9.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.

Result
Sagan TosuDrawCerezo Osaka
34.25% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02) 26.55% (0.00099999999999767 0) 39.21% (0.012 0.01)
Both teams to score 52.18% (-0.014000000000003 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.31% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)52.68% (0.010999999999996 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.67% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)74.33% (0.0099999999999909 0.01)
Sagan Tosu Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.79% (-0.019999999999996 -0.02)29.21% (0.015999999999998 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.84% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)65.16% (0.019000000000005 0.02)
Cerezo Osaka Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.71% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)26.29% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.58% (0.00099999999999767 0)61.41% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)
Score Analysis
    Sagan Tosu 34.25%
    Cerezo Osaka 39.21%
    Draw 26.54%
Sagan TosuDrawCerezo Osaka
1-0 @ 9.45%
2-1 @ 7.77% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-0 @ 5.82% (-0.0029999999999992 -0)
3-1 @ 3.19% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-0 @ 2.39% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-2 @ 2.13% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-1 @ 0.98% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.53%
Total : 34.25%
1-1 @ 12.62%
0-0 @ 7.68% (0.0039999999999996 0)
2-2 @ 5.19% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-3 @ 0.95% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 26.54%
0-1 @ 10.26% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-2 @ 8.43% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-2 @ 6.85% (0.0039999999999996 0)
1-3 @ 3.76% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 3.05% (0.0020000000000002 0)
2-3 @ 2.31% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
1-4 @ 1.25%
0-4 @ 1.02%
Other @ 2.27%
Total : 39.21%

How you voted: Sagan Tosu vs Cerezo

Sagan Tosu
16.7%
Draw
0.0%
Cerezo Osaka
83.3%
6
Head to Head
Mar 12, 2023 5am
Gameweek 4
Cerezo
2-1
Sagan Tosu
Sep 10, 2022 11am
Gameweek 29
Cerezo
2-1
Sagan Tosu
Suzuki (52'), Patric (90+3')
Honda (82')
May 3, 2022 7am
Gameweek 11
Sagan Tosu
1-1
Cerezo
Fujita (83')
Tashiro (71')
Mendes (73' pen.)
Okuno (52')
Jul 24, 2021 11am
Gameweek 22
Sagan Tosu
3-3
Cerezo
Sakai (1'), Koyamatsu (8'), Higuchi (45+1')
Iino (51')
Kato (18', 69'), Sakamoto (87' pen.)
Matsuda (65'), Matsuda (90+5')
Apr 2, 2021 11am
Gameweek 7
Cerezo
1-0
Sagan Tosu
Okuno (46')

Sento (42'), Seok-Ho (55'), Dudu (81')
Seok-Ho (77')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Machida Zelvia128131810825
2Vissel KobeVissel Kobe127231991023
3Kashima AntlersKashima Antlers127141713422
4FC Tokyo126332117421
5Cerezo OsakaCerezo125521611520
6Sanfrecce HiroshimaHiroshima124711911819
7Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus126151314-119
8Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka125341010018
9Urawa Red DiamondsUrawa125251717017
10Tokyo Verdy123721715216
11Yokohama F MarinosYokohama114431614216
12Avispa Fukuoka123721010016
13Jubilo Iwata124261817114
14Kashiwa ReysolReysol11353911-214
15Kawasaki FrontaleKawasaki123451615113
16Albirex Niigata123451216-413
17Shonan BellmareShonan Bellmare122461724-710
18Kyoto Sanga12237918-99
19Sagan Tosu122281323-108
20Consadole SapporoConsadole121561123-128
> J1 League Full Table


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