Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 45.75%. A win for Auxerre had a probability of 29.46% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.27%) and 0-2 (7.58%). The likeliest Auxerre win was 1-0 (7.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Monaco would win this match.
Result | ||
Auxerre | Draw | Monaco |
29.46% ( 2.75) | 24.79% ( 0.21) | 45.75% ( -2.96) |
Both teams to score 56.06% ( 1.34) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.19% ( 0.83) | 46.81% ( -0.84) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.93% ( 0.77) | 69.06% ( -0.78) |
Auxerre Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.54% ( 2.47) | 29.45% ( -2.48) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.54% ( 2.92) | 65.46% ( -2.93) |
Monaco Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.47% ( -0.92) | 20.52% ( 0.92) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.97% ( -1.47) | 53.02% ( 1.47) |
Score Analysis |
Auxerre | Draw | Monaco |
1-0 @ 7.39% ( 0.24) 2-1 @ 7.15% ( 0.5) 2-0 @ 4.52% ( 0.44) 3-1 @ 2.91% ( 0.38) 3-2 @ 2.31% ( 0.25) 3-0 @ 1.84% ( 0.29) Other @ 3.34% Total : 29.46% | 1-1 @ 11.7% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 6.05% ( -0.22) 2-2 @ 5.66% ( 0.25) 3-3 @ 1.22% ( 0.1) Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.78% | 0-1 @ 9.57% ( -0.63) 1-2 @ 9.27% ( -0.22) 0-2 @ 7.58% ( -0.73) 1-3 @ 4.89% ( -0.26) 0-3 @ 4% ( -0.51) 2-3 @ 2.99% ( 0.05) 1-4 @ 1.94% ( -0.16) 0-4 @ 1.58% ( -0.25) 2-4 @ 1.18% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.75% Total : 45.75% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 31 | 20 | 10 | 1 | 76 | 29 | 47 | 70 |
2 | MonacoMonaco | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 62 | 42 | 20 | 61 |
3 | Brest | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 49 | 33 | 16 | 57 |
4 | Lille | 32 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 48 | 31 | 17 | 55 |
5 | Nice | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 36 | 25 | 11 | 51 |
6 | Lens | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 42 | 34 | 8 | 49 |
7 | Lyon | 32 | 14 | 5 | 13 | 46 | 54 | -8 | 47 |
8 | Rennes | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 51 | 43 | 8 | 45 |
9 | Marseille | 31 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 47 | 38 | 9 | 44 |
10 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 40 |
11 | Toulouse | 32 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 40 |
12 | Reims | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 40 |
13 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 35 | 47 | -12 | 36 |
14 | NantesNantes | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 29 | 49 | -20 | 33 |
15 | Le HavreLe Havre | 32 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 33 | 42 | -9 | 32 |
16 | Metz | 32 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 34 | 54 | -20 | 29 |
17 | Lorient | 32 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 37 | 63 | -26 | 26 |
18 | Clermont | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 26 | 54 | -28 | 25 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |