Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 40.44%. A win for Toronto had a probability of 33.56% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.65%) and 0-2 (6.91%). The likeliest Toronto win was 1-0 (8.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood.
Result | ||
Toronto | Draw | Philadelphia Union |
33.56% ( 0.01) | 26% ( 0.01) | 40.44% ( -0.01) |
Both teams to score 53.83% ( -0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.49% ( -0.02) | 50.51% ( 0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.57% ( -0.01) | 72.43% ( 0.02) |
Toronto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.43% | 28.58% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.63% ( -0) | 64.37% ( 0.01) |
Philadelphia Union Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.36% ( -0.01) | 24.64% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.85% ( -0.02) | 59.16% ( 0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Toronto | Draw | Philadelphia Union |
1-0 @ 8.82% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 7.74% ( 0) 2-0 @ 5.52% ( 0) 3-1 @ 3.23% 3-0 @ 2.31% 3-2 @ 2.26% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.01% Other @ 2.67% Total : 33.56% | 1-1 @ 12.35% 0-0 @ 7.04% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.42% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.06% Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.99% | 0-1 @ 9.86% ( 0) 1-2 @ 8.65% ( -0) 0-2 @ 6.91% ( -0) 1-3 @ 4.04% ( -0) 0-3 @ 3.23% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.53% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.42% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.13% ( -0) Other @ 2.67% Total : 40.44% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 18 | 14 | 24 |
2 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 21 |
3 | Toronto | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 19 |
4 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 17 |
5 | Columbus Crew | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 15 |
6 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 14 |
7 | DC United | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 14 |
8 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 14 |
9 | New York City FCNY City | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 14 |
10 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 12 |
11 | CF MontrealMontreal | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 12 |
12 | Nashville SCNashville | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 11 |
13 | Chicago Fire | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 10 |
14 | Orlando City | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 9 |
15 | New England RevolutionNew England | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 7 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 21 |
2 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 20 |
3 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 19 |
4 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 18 |
5 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 18 |
6 | Austin FCAustin | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 16 |
7 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 15 |
8 | Houston DynamoHouston | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 14 |
9 | St Louis City | 10 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 13 |
10 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 11 |
11 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 10 |
12 | Portland TimbersPortland | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 10 |
13 | Dallas | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 8 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 7 |