New York City FC take on Atlanta United in the MLS Eastern Conference on Wednesday.
The two sides head into the clash level on 11 points from eight games, with NY City currently holding onto the seventh and final playoff position via goal difference.
Match preview
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NY City, who have not managed to win the MLS Cup since being founded eight years ago, have only won one of their last five matches ahead of Wednesday's tricky test against Atlanta.
Former Celtic manager Ronny Deila was appointed as manager in January 2020, guiding them to the first round of the playoffs last season before being beaten by Orlando City on penalties.
Perhaps lacking a star designated player like David Villa, who scored 80 goals in 124 matches as club captain between 2014 and 2018, reaching further than the quarter-finals of the playoffs for the first time in the club's history appears an unlikely aim this time around.
Indeed, given the patchiness of their form so far, simply reaching the playoffs for a sixth consecutive season would probably be considered a satisfactory achievement, with a win against Atlanta required on Wednesday to guarantee keeping them in those positions for the time being.
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Atlanta were founded a year later than NY City in 2014, but unlike their forthcoming opponents, they have already managed to win the MLS Cup after beating Portland Timbers 2-0 in the final in 2018.
After losing in the semi-finals to Toronto a year later, Atlanta appear to have fallen down the MLS pecking order somewhat having only finished 12th in the Eastern Conference last season and endured a mixed start to the current campaign.
Former Manchester United defender Gabriel Heinze took over the club as manager in December 2020, with the 43-year-old under pressure to restore Atlanta to the playoffs at the end of this standard season.
In fairness to Heinze, he has only suffered one league defeat in his eight matches in charge so far, with New England showing how they are five points clear at the top of the Eastern Conference with a 2-1 win against them.
Atlanta were close to ending a run of draws against Philadelphia last time out, too, but Jakob Glesnes's screamer from distance in the 93rd minute scuppered their hopes of that.
Clearly, then, they will be hoping to turn one point into three and leapfrog their opponents into the playoff positions when they travel to New York on Wednesday.
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Team News
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NY City appear to have Gedion Zelalem and Heber unavailable still due to serious knee injuries.
The pair have not played for the club since July and September respectively last year, while Thiago Andrade continues to have visa issues.
Atlanta will remain without Jurgen Damm and Emerson Hyndman with leg injuries.
Former Bournemouth midfielder Hyndman sustained a serious cruciate ligament rupture earlier this month, so could miss the rest of the season.
New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Johnson; Tinnerholm, Chanot, Sands, Amundsen; Magno, Morales, Parks; Medina; Moralez, Castellanos
Atlanta United possible starting lineup:
Guzan; Robinson, Sosa, Walkes; Lennon, Ibarra, Moreno, Bello; Lopez, Barco; Torres
We say: New York City FC 1-1 Atlanta United
We can envisage a fifth draw in six matches for Atlanta when they take on NY City on Wednesday.
These two teams are level on points after eight matches so there is clearly very little to split them.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 59.42%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Atlanta United had a probability of 19.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.14%) and 1-0 (8.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.72%), while for an Atlanta United win it was 1-2 (5.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
