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Cagliari logo
Serie B | 1st Leg
May 30, 2023 at 7.30pm UK
Stadio Sant'Elia
Parma logo

Cagliari
3 - 2
Parma

Luvumbo (68', 89'), Lapadula (85' pen.)
FT(HT: 0-2)
Benedyczak (10'), Sohm (26')
Estevez (29'), Vazquez (62'), Chichizola (65'), Mihaila (72'), Man (90+1')

Preview: Cagliari vs. Parma - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Serie B clash between Cagliari and Parma, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Cagliari will be bidding to use home advantage to secure a positive result in the first leg of their Serie B playoff semi-final against Parma on Tuesday night.

Gli Isolani booked their spot in the final four courtesy of a 2-1 success over Venezia on Saturday, while Parma qualified for the semi-finals due to finishing fourth in Italy's second tier.


Match preview

 Watford manager Claudio Ranieri, November 20, 2021© Reuters

Cagliari were relegated from Serie A at the end of the 2021-22 campaign, ultimately finishing 18th in the table, so they are attempting to return to the top flight at the first time of asking.

The Red and Blues picked up 60 points from their 38 Serie B matches to finish fifth in the table, which saw them qualify for the promotion playoffs preliminary round.

Cagliari took on Venezia for a place in the semi-finals, and Claudio Ranieri's side managed to record a 2-1 victory, with Gianluca Lapadula netting a first-half double for the home side.

Gli Isolani were actually level on points with Parma at the end of the season, but they finished fifth due to their inferior head-to-head record, with Parma running out 2-1 winners in April, while the reverse match between the two teams at the home of Cagliari finished in a 1-1 draw.

Ranieri will be aware of the importance of picking up a positive result in the first leg, and Cagliari only lost eight times in the league in 2022-23, with too many draws (15) preventing them from pushing higher up the table.

Roberto Inglese in action for Parma on February 9, 2019© Reuters

Parma, meanwhile, were relegated from Serie A at the end of the 2020-21 campaign, picking up just 20 points from 38 matches during a disappointing campaign.

The Crusaders are now in a position to challenge for a return to the top level, though, with a total of 60 points from 38 matches during the Serie B season seeing them finish fourth in the table.

The Yellow and Blues automatically qualified for the semi-finals of the playoffs, so they have not been in action since beating Venezia 2-1 on May 19.

Fabio Pecchia's side will enter this match in excellent form, having won six of their last eight matches, while they have not lost since the middle of March away to Como.

Parma will be the fresher of the two teams, which could play a major role in the first leg of this last-four contest, and the winner of the semi-final will take on either Sudtirol or Bari for a position in Serie A.

Cagliari Serie B form:

Parma Serie B form:


Team News

Juventus goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon pictured in March 2021© Reuters

Cagliari will again be missing Filippo Falco, Elio Capradossi and Luigi Palomba through injury for the first leg of their playoff semi-final with Parma on Tuesday night.

However, the home side have no fresh fitness issues from their win over Venezia, and head coach Ranieri could therefore name an unchanged side for the first whistle.

Lapadula has been in excellent form this season, scoring 24 goals in all competitions, and the 33-year-old will again lead the Cagliari line in this contest.

Parma will again be without the services of Lautaro Valenti due to a long-term knee injury, while Drissa Camara is suspended due to the milestone booking that he picked up against Venezia last time out.

Camara would have been in contention for a start here considering his impressive performance and goal off the bench in the team's last game, but he will not be available for selection.

Parma will again have 45-year-old Gianluigi Buffon between the sticks, while Franco Vazquez will lead the line, with the 34-year-old scoring 11 times in all competitions during a strong campaign.


Cagliari possible starting lineup:
Radunovic; Zappa, Dossena, Altare, Obert; Makoumbou, Deiola; Nandez, Mancosu, Luvumbo; Lapadula

Parma possible starting lineup:
Buffon; Del Prato, Osorio, Circati, Coulibaly; Estevez, Bernabe; Zanimacchia, Sohm, Man; Vazquez


SM words green background

We say: Cagliari 1-1 Parma

The two teams played out a 1-1 draw when they locked horns at the home of Cagliari earlier this season, and we can see the same result in this match. The league table shows that there is hardly anything to choose between them, and we are expecting this semi-final to be incredibly tight across the two legs.


Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 46.93%. A win for Parma had a probability of 26.55% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (8.92%). The likeliest Parma win was 0-1 (8.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cagliari would win this match.


Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:curl


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rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Parma362111464333174
2Como36218757391871
3VeneziaVenezia36207966432367
4Cremonese36189946311563
5CatanzaroCatanzaro361791058461260
6Palermo361410125951852
7Sampdoria36149134949049
8Brescia361115104037348
9SudtirolSudtirol361210144445-146
10Reggiana361016103743-646
11Cosenza CalcioCosenza361112134439545
12Pisa361112134850-245
13Cittadella361112133943-445
14Modena36916113845-743
15SpeziaSpezia36816123246-1440
16AscoliAscoli36813153439-537
17Ternana36910174150-937
18BariBari36716133548-1337
19FeralpiSaloFeralpiSalo3689194362-1933
20Lecco3668223267-3526


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