Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 44.98%. A win for Maritimo had a probability of 28.7% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9%) and 2-0 (8.23%). The likeliest Maritimo win was 0-1 (8.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Arouca in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Arouca.
Result | ||
Arouca | Draw | Maritimo |
44.98% ( -0.38) | 26.32% ( 0.17) | 28.7% ( 0.21) |
Both teams to score 50.73% ( -0.39) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
46.45% ( -0.56) | 53.55% ( 0.56) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
24.94% ( -0.48) | 75.06% ( 0.47) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.28% ( -0.42) | 23.72% ( 0.42) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
42.15% ( -0.61) | 57.85% ( 0.61) |
Maritimo Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.5% ( -0.14) | 33.5% ( 0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.86% ( -0.15) | 70.13% ( 0.15) |
Score Analysis |
Arouca | Draw | Maritimo |
1-0 @ 11.43% ( 0.11) 2-1 @ 9% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 8.23% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 4.32% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 3.95% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 2.36% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 1.55% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 1.42% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.73% Total : 44.98% | 1-1 @ 12.5% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 7.94% ( 0.17) 2-2 @ 4.92% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.95% Total : 26.31% | 0-1 @ 8.69% ( 0.16) 1-2 @ 6.84% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 4.75% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 2.49% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.79% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.73% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.4% Total : 28.7% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 32 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 92 | 29 | 63 | 84 |
2 | Benfica | 32 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 71 | 27 | 44 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 32 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 60 | 26 | 34 | 66 |
4 | Braga | 32 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 68 | 47 | 21 | 65 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 47 | 34 | 13 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 49 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 32 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 32 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 39 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 32 | 6 | 17 | 9 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 35 |
11 | Casa Pia | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 35 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 33 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 48 | 55 | -7 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 58 | -22 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 32 | 6 | 12 | 14 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 34 | 69 | -35 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 68 | -37 | 23 |
R | Vizela | 32 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 30 | 64 | -34 | 22 |
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