Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 77.81%. A draw had a probability of 14.1% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 8.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.5%) and 1-0 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.68%), while for a Tondela win it was 0-1 (2.54%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.