Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 42.96%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 29.09% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.45%) and 0-2 (8.34%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 1-0 (10.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.
Result | ||
Cagliari | Draw | Roma |
29.09% ( 0.83) | 27.95% ( -0.05) | 42.96% ( -0.79) |
Both teams to score 46.24% ( 0.56) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
40.6% ( 0.5) | 59.39% ( -0.5) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
20.22% ( 0.38) | 79.77% ( -0.39) |
Cagliari Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.68% ( 0.93) | 36.32% ( -0.94) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.89% ( 0.93) | 73.1% ( -0.94) |
Roma Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.61% ( -0.19) | 27.39% ( 0.18) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.14% ( -0.24) | 62.86% ( 0.23) |
Score Analysis |
Cagliari | Draw | Roma |
1-0 @ 10.07% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 6.61% ( 0.18) 2-0 @ 5.1% ( 0.16) 3-1 @ 2.23% ( 0.11) 3-0 @ 1.72% ( 0.1) 3-2 @ 1.44% ( 0.07) Other @ 1.91% Total : 29.08% | 1-1 @ 13.04% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 9.95% ( -0.18) 2-2 @ 4.28% ( 0.09) Other @ 0.68% Total : 27.94% | 0-1 @ 12.88% ( -0.31) 1-2 @ 8.45% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 8.34% ( -0.25) 1-3 @ 3.65% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 3.6% ( -0.13) 2-3 @ 1.85% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 1.18% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 1.17% ( -0.05) Other @ 1.85% Total : 42.96% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Inter Milan | 35 | 28 | 5 | 2 | 81 | 19 | 62 | 89 |
2 | AC Milan | 35 | 21 | 8 | 6 | 67 | 42 | 25 | 71 |
3 | Juventus | 35 | 18 | 12 | 5 | 48 | 27 | 21 | 66 |
4 | Bologna | 35 | 17 | 13 | 5 | 49 | 27 | 22 | 64 |
5 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 63 | 38 | 25 | 60 |
6 | Roma | 35 | 17 | 9 | 9 | 62 | 42 | 20 | 60 |
7 | Lazio | 35 | 17 | 5 | 13 | 45 | 37 | 8 | 56 |
8 | Napoli | 35 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 53 | 44 | 9 | 51 |
9 | Fiorentina | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 51 | 39 | 12 | 50 |
10 | Torino | 35 | 11 | 14 | 10 | 31 | 31 | 0 | 47 |
11 | Monza | 35 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 38 | 46 | -8 | 45 |
12 | Genoa | 35 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 41 | 43 | -2 | 43 |
13 | Lecce | 35 | 8 | 13 | 14 | 32 | 50 | -18 | 37 |
14 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 35 | 8 | 10 | 17 | 33 | 46 | -13 | 34 |
15 | CagliariCagliari | 35 | 7 | 12 | 16 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 33 |
16 | FrosinoneFrosinone | 35 | 7 | 11 | 17 | 43 | 63 | -20 | 32 |
17 | Empoli | 35 | 8 | 8 | 19 | 26 | 50 | -24 | 32 |
18 | Udinese | 35 | 4 | 18 | 13 | 33 | 52 | -19 | 30 |
19 | SassuoloSassuolo | 35 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 41 | 70 | -29 | 29 |
R | Salernitana | 35 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 27 | 75 | -48 | 15 |
> Serie A Full Table |