Meetings between these clubs rarely pass without plenty of penalty-box incident, and though Lazio have tightened up in recent times, they remain susceptible to being hit on the break.
An average of 3.4 goals during their previous 17 encounters with Sassuolo suggests a score draw may be the likeliest outcome on Saturday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 58.27%. A win for Sassuolo had a probability of 21.07% and a draw had a probability of 20.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.11%) and 1-0 (7.67%). The likeliest Sassuolo win was 1-2 (5.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Lazio in this match.
