AC Milan host Atalanta BC on Sunday in what could prove to be a crucial battle in terms of shaping Serie A's top four complexion this season.
The hosts head into the match three points clear of their forthcoming opponents, but Atalanta would move ahead of Milan on head-to-head should they be able to secure a victory at San Siro.
Match preview
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Having failed to win seven successive matches in all competitions following their return to action after the World Cup, Milan appear to have turned a corner by winning each of their last three matches by the same scoreline of 1-0.
Previously one of Serie A's most entertaining teams, Stefano Pioli has made a conscious effort to tighten up his defence having been left distinctly unimpressed by the amount of goals his side were shipping after returning from the World Cup.
The 57-year-old's switch to a five-man defence has not been the easiest on the eye at times, but it has proven effective, with Torino, Tottenham Hotspur and Monza all edged out in scrappy affairs.
As such, Milan's destiny in terms of finishing in the top four and reaching the last eight of the Champions League remains firmly in their own hands, although the real test of their new system is likely to come against Atalanta on Sunday.
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Indeed, the Bergamo-based side have been one of the most effective teams in Europe in recent years in terms of utilising variants of a five-man defensive formation, with Gian Piero Gasperini's side returning to form this season after disappointingly finishing eighth in the last campaign.
Given their constant churn in playing staff, with more financially-backed teams often poaching their best players as a result of their overachievements in recent seasons, it was perhaps inevitable that Atalanta would suffer a drop-off at some point during Gasperini's reign.
However, I Nerazzurri are firmly in the shake up to secure Champions League football for the fourth time in five seasons, having sensationally finished third on three successive occasions between 2018 and 2021.
Having been beaten by Sassuolo and Lecce in two of their last three outings, though, Gasperini's side have a little bit of ground to make up on the top four, with Sunday the perfect opportunity to do so against one of their direct rivals at one of the most famous football stadiums in the world.
Team News
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Milan will remain without Mike Maignan, Ismael Bennacer and club captain Davide Calabria due to muscle injuries, with the trio all set for return dates at various points during March.
Junior Messias deputised at right wing-back in Calabria's absence against Monza last weekend, scoring the decisive goal moments after the half an hour mark, but Alexis Saelemaekers' industry may be preferred against a more dangerous opponent in the form of Atalanta.
Olivier Giroud is also likely to replace Divock Origi in attack after only being used from the bench during the win against one of their local rivals, while Simon Kjaer's experience could also be called upon at the heart of the defence.
Atalanta, meanwhile, will travel without Merih Demiral after the central defender received his fifth caution of the season in the defeat to Lecce. Jose Luis Palomino will almost certainly replace the Turkey international in the middle of the visitors' defence.
Duvan Zapata and Mario Pasalic remain sidelined by thigh and ankle injuries respectively, while Hans Hateboer's season came to an end after picking up an ACL injury against Lazio earlier this month.
Netherlands international Marten de Roon will almost certainly return to the engine room alongside his compatriot Teun Koopmeiners, having been sorely missed during the defeat against Lecce after picking up a suspension.
AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Tatarusanu; Kalulu, Kjaer, Thiaw; Saelemaekers, Tonali, Krunic, Hernandez; Diaz, Leao; Giroud
Atalanta BC possible starting lineup:
Musso; Toloi, Palomino, Djimsiti; Zappacosta, De Roon, Koopmeiners, Ederson, Maehle; Lookman, Hojlund
We say: AC Milan 1-0 Atalanta BC
Atalanta are often more dangerous away from home, especially in big matches due to their proficiency in transition, but they appear to have lost form at a crucial time in the season.
Milan, on the other hand, have rediscovered the winning grit that saw them reclaim Serie A's title last season, and we can envisage them edging a tight victory on Sunday.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Brett Curtis
