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Serie A | Gameweek 18
Jan 14, 2023 at 5pm UK
Stadio Comunale Via del Mare
Milan logo

Lecce
2 - 2
AC Milan

Hernandez (3' og.), Baschirotto (23')
Maleh (64')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Leao (58'), Calabria (70')
Calabria (66'), Bennacer (85')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between Lecce and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Spezia 0-0 Lecce
Sunday, January 8 at 2pm in Serie A
Last Game: AC Milan 0-1 Torino
Wednesday, January 11 at 8pm in Coppa Italia

We said: Lecce 0-2 AC Milan

Curiously, Lecce are one of two sides yet to score during the first 15 minutes of play in Serie A this season; Milan have netted seven times in the same period (the joint-most in Italy's top flight). The hosts cannot afford a slow start on Saturday, though, as their visitors will be fired up by recent setbacks and are likely to come out all guns blazing. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 57.25%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Lecce had a probability of 20.16%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.9%) and 1-2 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.71%), while for a Lecce win it was 1-0 (5.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.

Result
LecceDrawAC Milan
20.16% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02) 22.6% (-0.012999999999998 -0.01) 57.25% (0.039000000000001 0.04)
Both teams to score 53.25% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.19% (0.022000000000006 0.02)45.81% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.88% (0.021000000000001 0.02)68.12% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Lecce Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.21% (-0.011000000000003 -0.01)36.79% (0.013999999999996 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.42% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01)73.58% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.25% (0.022000000000006 0.02)15.75% (-0.02 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.13% (0.039000000000001 0.04)44.87% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)
Score Analysis
    Lecce 20.16%
    AC Milan 57.25%
    Draw 22.6%
LecceDrawAC Milan
1-0 @ 5.8% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
2-1 @ 5.36% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
2-0 @ 2.9% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-1 @ 1.79% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-2 @ 1.65% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
3-0 @ 0.97% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 1.7%
Total : 20.16%
1-1 @ 10.71%
0-0 @ 5.8% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.95% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-3 @ 1.02%
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 22.6%
0-1 @ 10.71%
0-2 @ 9.9% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
1-2 @ 9.9% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-3 @ 6.1% (0.0070000000000006 0.01)
1-3 @ 6.1% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
2-3 @ 3.05% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-4 @ 2.82% (0.0050000000000003 0.01)
1-4 @ 2.82% (0.004 0)
2-4 @ 1.41% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-5 @ 1.04% (0.002 0)
1-5 @ 1.04% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.38%
Total : 57.25%

How you voted: Lecce vs AC Milan

Lecce
15.8%
Draw
10.5%
AC Milan
73.7%
95
Head to Head
Jun 22, 2020 6.30pm
Oct 20, 2019 7.45pm
AC Milan
2-2
Lecce
Calhanoglu (20'), Piatek (81')
Biglia (85')
Babacar (62'), Calderoni (92')
Majer (44'), Rossettini (76')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Napoli128221991026
2Atalanta BCAtalanta1281331151625
3Fiorentina1274125101525
4Inter Milan1274126141225
5Lazio1281325141125
6Juventus126602171424
7AC Milan115332014618
8Bologna114611513218
9Udinese125161518-316
10Empoli12363910-115
11Torino124261518-314
12Roma123451417-313
13Parma122641618-212
14Hellas VeronaHellas Verona124081727-1012
15Como122461323-1010
16CagliariCagliari122461222-1010
17Genoa12246922-1310
18Lecce12237521-169
19Monza121561015-58
20VeneziaVenezia122281121-108


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