Bordeaux will be desperate to end a four-game losing streak across all competitions when they welcome a troubled Marseille to the Matmut Atlantique for Sunday evening's Ligue 1 showdown.
The hosts saw their Coupe de France journey come to an abrupt end in midweek with a 2-0 defeat to Ligue 2 outfit Toulouse, whereas Marseille booked their spot in the next round after beating Auxerre by the same scoreline.
Match preview
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Two teams who would have felt quietly optimistic about their chances of a top-five challenge now find themselves down in ninth and 10th respectively ahead of Sunday's meeting, with Bordeaux now back to losing ways after a promising start to 2021.
Defeats to title-chasing sides in Lille and Lyon is nothing to be ashamed of, but Jean-Louis Gasset's side continued their barren run with a surprise loss to inconsistent Brest last time out in the league before being put to the sword 2-0 by Toulouse in the cup.
In fairness, Gasset did field a heavily-weakened team for that midweek game - perhaps hinting at where his priorities lie for the remainder of the season - so supporters should not be reading into that Coupe de France defeat whatsoever ahead of the visit of Marseille.
However, with three defeats on the bounce in the top flight - an unwanted record that is only shared by bottom two sides Dijon and Nimes - Bordeaux are now six points adrift of fifth-placed Rennes having played a game more, and Les Girondins have kept just one clean sheet in their last seven home matches after previously going five without conceding.
The hosts have not shared the spoils on their own turf since a goalless stalemate with Nice on September 29 - winning five and losing four at the Matmut Atlantique since then - and they have every right to fancy their chances against a Marseille side suffering from as many problems off the pitch as they are on it.
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Following a week of unprecedented turmoil which culminated in defeat to Paris Saint-Germain in Le Classique, Marseille ended a seven-game winless run in all competitions by sinking Auxerre 2-0 in Wednesday's Coupe de France clash.
Dario Benedetto and Ahmadou Bamba Dieng got the goals which handed Nasser Larguet his first victory as interim Olympiens manager - a much-needed triumph which could act as the catalyst for an improved run of form in the top flight - something that the restless Marseille faithful will demand to see in the coming weeks.
Even though ninth-placed Marseille do have two games in hand over most of the teams around them, a title or Champions League push is practically out of the question amid their truly horrendous form, with relegation-threatened Nantes and Dijon the only other sides in the division without a win from their last five Ligue 1 outings.
The visitors are a long way off from equalling their worst ever winless run in Ligue 1 - 11 between February and April 2016 - and if Larguet had not already experienced a baptism of fire in the Marseille dugout, history suggests that the 62-year-old will struggle to endear himself to the Olympiens faithful this weekend.
Indeed, Bordeaux have not lost on home soil to Marseille since 1977 - a French top-flight record of 35 matches without defeat against a single opponent - although Les Olympiens did triumph 3-1 earlier in the campaign when Andre Villas-Boas was at the helm.
Bordeaux Ligue 1 form: WWWLLL
Bordeaux form (all competitions): WWLLLL
Marseille Ligue 1 form: LLLLDL
Marseille form (all competitions): LLLDLW
Team News
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Bordeaux fielded a largely unrecognisable lineup against Toulouse - which included starts for a quartet of teenagers - and Gasset is likely to make a whole 11 changes for this clash.
Toma Basic returns from a suspension and is set to link up with Yacine Adli in the midfield once again, while Hatem Ben Arfa and Remi Oudin should come back into the attack, and Gasset is "very optimistic" that Samuel Kalu can return after missing his side's last two matches through injury.
One positive aspect of the defeat to Brest was the continued hot streak of Hwang Ui-jo - the South Korea international opened the scoring in that game - his seventh goal contribution (six goals, one assist) in his last 10 Ligue 1 matches.
Marseille attacker Dimitri Payet has been handed a two-match suspension for his nasty challenge on PSG's Marco Verratti - which left the Italian with a hip injury - and could be replaced by Luis Henrique here.
Winter arrival Arkadiusz Milik has already seen his game time depleted due to a thigh injury and he is not available for this one, while first-choice centre-backs Duje Caleta-Car and Alvaro Gonzalez are both sidelined as well.
However, Jordan Amavi is finally back in the fold after a lengthy layoff, but on the other side of defence, Hiroki Sakai is doubtful due to illness.
Bordeaux possible starting lineup:
Costil; Kwateng, Baysse, Koscielny, Benito; Basic, Adli; Kalu, Ben Arfa, Oudin; Hwang
Marseille possible starting lineup:
Mandanda; Lirola, Balerdi, Perrin, Amavi; Gueye, Kamara, Rongier; Thauvin, Benedetto, Henrique
We say: Bordeaux 2-1 Marseille
Larguet will be fully aware of Marseille's torrid record on the Girondins' turf, and the visiting manager may have felt optimistic about breaking the 43-year-old duck this weekend, but injuries and suspensions have taken their toll. Bordeaux's senior players will be well-rested and determined to return to winning ways against their fellow mid-table outfit, so we expect Marseille's wait for a win at Bordeaux to continue for another year at least - a narrow home win is the most probable outcome in this battle.
Top betting tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 40.75%. A win for Bordeaux had a probability of 31.81% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.41%) and 0-2 (7.56%). The likeliest Bordeaux win was 1-0 (9.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 9% likelihood.
