Club Leon and the Portland Timbers will meet for the first time on Sunday in the opening match for both sides at the 2024 Leagues Cup from Providence Park.
In this tournament last year, La Fiera were eliminated in the round of 32 by Real Salt Lake (3-1), with the Timbers losing out at that same stage against Monterrey (1-0).
Match preview
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The 2024 Liga MX Apertura campaign is still young, but Club Leon look like a mere shadow of the side that won this tournament in 2021.
After four domestic matchdays, Jorge Bava's men have yet to claim a victory, while they have not won a competitive fixture since defeating Monterrey 2-0 in April.
There has been plenty of turnover from the squad that lifted this trophy three years ago and the one that won the CONCACAF Champions Cup in 2023, and there has been a lack of consistency with this new squad since April, winning only once.
Leon have not been knocked out in the group stage of an international tournament since the 2014-15 CONCACAF Champions Cup.
Last year, they topped their Leagues Cup group above the Vancouver Whitecaps and Los Angeles Galaxy, having never lost a group game in this competition.
Los Panzas Verde have emerged victorious in five of their six Leagues Cup meetings versus MLS opponents, with their only defeat coming against RSL in the knockout phase last season.
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Throughout the 2024 MLS campaign, the Timbers have been perhaps the most exciting side to watch, but that has not always equalled three points.
Three or more goals have been scored in 20 of their 25 domestic affairs, though they have failed to win on 12 of those occasions.
After 25 domestic fixtures this year, Portland have scored 50 goals, four more than they managed at the end of the 2023 regular season.
Phil Neville's men have been a handful in the attacking third at Providence Park, winning their last four matches played there by a combined score of 12-3.
At the Leagues Cup, however, they have lost their last two encounters at home, failing to score only once in their knockout defeat to Monterrey last year.
Both of their defeats at this tournament in 2023 came against Mexican opposition, while they have never beaten a side from Liga MX in four prior meetings across all competitions.
Team News
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In their 1-1 draw with Necaxa last Sunday, Leon were without Ivan Moreno due to a Metatarsal injury, while Federico Vinas was sidelined because of an Achilles tendon issue.
A 65th-minute penalty converted by Jhonder Cadiz enabled them to claim a single point in their previous encounter, his team-leading third of the Apertura this year.
Portland did not have David Ayala at their disposal when they were beaten 3-2 by the Los Angeles Galaxy last weekend after he previously suffered a knock, and Marvin Loria continues to recover from his knee surgery.
Santiago Moreno netted his sixth of the MLS campaign last week, with Jonathan Rodriguez scoring his team-leading 12th of the year in a losing effort.
Club Leon possible starting lineup:
Blanco; Guerra, Barreiro, Bellon, Reyes; Frias; Alvarado, Ambriz, Guardado, Cabral; Cadiz
Portland Timbers possible starting lineup:
Crepeau; Mosquera, Araujo, K. Miller, Bravo; Williamson, Chara; Moreno, Evander, Antony; Rodriguez
We say: Club Leon 2-3 Portland Timbers
While Portland have looked susceptible defensively throughout the year, they show no signs of slowing down in the attacking third, and we believe their potency in that area of the field will rescue them again this weekend.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club Leon win with a probability of 50.1%. A win for Portland Timbers had a probability of 26.96% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Club Leon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.18%) and 2-0 (7.45%). The likeliest Portland Timbers win was 1-2 (6.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.
Joel Lefevre
