/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F21%2F12%2Fbellog.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F21%2F12%2Festlog.png)
-
Jan Vertonghen
4'
-
Leandro Trossard
18'
-
Romelu Lukaku
56'
-
Romelu Lukaku
58'
-
Charles De Ketelaere
70'
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Charles De Ketelaere
88'
-
Karol Mets
41'
Belgium vs Estonia - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Match Preview
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F23%2F36%2Fbelgium.jpg)
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgium win with a probability of 63.92%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Estonia had a probability of 15.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belgium win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.63%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.92%), while for a Estonia win it was 0-1 (5.01%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Belgium would win this match.
Result
Belgium
63.92%
▼
(-0.13)
Draw
20.86%
▲
(+0.09)
Estonia
15.21%
▲
(+0.05)
Both Teams to Score:
49.13%
▼
(-0.18)
Goals
Over 2.5
53.61%
▼
(-0.29)
Under 2.5
46.39%
▲
(+0.29)
Over 3.5
31.33%
▼
(-0.27)
Under 3.5
68.67%
▲
(+0.27)
Over 4.5
15.6%
▼
(-0.19)
Under 4.5
84.4%
▲
(+0.19)
Belgium Goals
Over 0.5
86.19%
▼
(-0.13)
Under 0.5
13.81%
▲
(+0.13)
Over 1.5
58.84%
▼
(-0.26)
Under 1.5
41.16%
▲
(+0.26)
Estonia Goals
Over 0.5
57.01%
▼
(-0.12)
Under 0.5
42.99%
▲
(+0.12)
Over 1.5
20.72%
▼
(-0.10)
Under 1.5
79.28%
▲
(+0.10)
Score analysis
Belgium
63.91%
Draw
20.86%
Estonia
15.21%
Belgium
1-0
@
11.75%
▲
(+0.09)
2-0 @ 11.63% ▲ (+0.04)
2-1 @ 9.82% ▼ (-0.01)
3-0 @ 7.68% ▼ (-0.02)
3-1 @ 6.48% ▼ (-0.04)
4-0 @ 3.8% ▼ (-0.03)
4-1 @ 3.21% ▼ (-0.04)
3-2 @ 2.74% ▼ (-0.03)
5-0 @ 1.5% ▼ (-0.02)
4-2 @ 1.35% ▼ (-0.02)
5-1 @ 1.27% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 2.68%
Total : 63.91%
2-0 @ 11.63% ▲ (+0.04)
2-1 @ 9.82% ▼ (-0.01)
3-0 @ 7.68% ▼ (-0.02)
3-1 @ 6.48% ▼ (-0.04)
4-0 @ 3.8% ▼ (-0.03)
4-1 @ 3.21% ▼ (-0.04)
3-2 @ 2.74% ▼ (-0.03)
5-0 @ 1.5% ▼ (-0.02)
4-2 @ 1.35% ▼ (-0.02)
5-1 @ 1.27% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 2.68%
Total : 63.91%
Draw
1-1
@
9.92%
▲
(+0.04)
0-0 @ 5.94% ▲ (+0.08)
2-2 @ 4.15% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 0.86%
Total : 20.86%
0-0 @ 5.94% ▲ (+0.08)
2-2 @ 4.15% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 0.86%
Total : 20.86%
Estonia
0-1
@
5.01%
▲
(+0.05)
1-2 @ 4.19% ▲ (+0.01)
0-2 @ 2.12% ▲ (+0.02)
1-3 @ 1.18% ▼ (-0.01)
2-3 @ 1.17% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 1.55%
Total : 15.21%
1-2 @ 4.19% ▲ (+0.01)
0-2 @ 2.12% ▲ (+0.02)
1-3 @ 1.18% ▼ (-0.01)
2-3 @ 1.17% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 1.55%
Total : 15.21%