Latvia make the trip across Northern Europe to Torshavn to face the Faroe Islands in the UEFA Nations League on Sunday night in a meeting between two countries separated in the FIFA World Rankings by just three places.
As the two weakest nations in Group C4, this result is likely to have huge implications about who is relegated from the section.
Match preview
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Despite losing in Latvia last month, the Faroe Islands are giving themselves an excellent chance of still surviving thanks to their home form.
Even though they are ranked much lower, Hakan Ericson's side have held the other two sides in the group, North Macedonia and Armenia, to draws here in Torshavn, including against the latter on Thursday.
Ericson will have been disappointed not to see his side take all three points though, especially after Joannes Bjartalid put them back in front with five minutes remaining.
An Armenian equaliser in the third minute of stoppage time forced them to settle for a point though, as the Faroes' winless run was extended to 11 matches.
Regardless of the disappointment in throwing two points away late on, though, like many of the minnows, the Nations League has proved much more fruitful for the Faroes in comparison to major tournament qualifying, as they have lost just five of their 21 games in the competition since its inception in 2018.
After winning promotion in an unbeaten campaign in 2020, the Faroes ensured survival in the last edition, taking eight points from their six games.
Survival again could hinge on winning this encounter, though, given that Latvia won 1-0 in the reverse last month, thanks to a solitary strike from Renars Varslavans - the second win for Paolo Nicolato's men over the Faroes in the space of three months.
© Imago
The Faroes won the first meeting between the two in 2016, but have won none of the following six, and any result here for Latvia will make them huge favourites to survive relegation in their first campaign at this level.
However, unlike their upcoming hosts, Latvia have been unable to take anything off the other two teams in the group, losing 3-0 at home to North Macedonia on Thursday after a 4-1 defeat in Armenia last month.
Even a draw here, though, would keep them one point above the Faroes, and give them the edge on head-to-head, meaning their relegation rivals would need at least two points in their away trips to North Macedonia and Armenia next month - an unlikely scenario.
Latvia have also enjoyed their UNL campaigns of late, as their promotion success in 2022 saw them take 13 points from a possible 18, and they have lost less than a third of their 21 games in the competition.
Team News
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The Faroes are likely to remain unchanged for their second home game in three days after the impressive performance they put in against Armenia on Thursday, despite only coming away with a point.
Joan Simun Edmundsson is likely to start as the sole striker, and he is the most experienced member of the squad, with his appearance against Armenia taking him just six shy of a century of caps.
The only injury concern remains Sligo Rovers midfielder Stefan Radosavljevic, who has only returned from a lengthy absence this week, and was not selected.
Latvia are without Vjaceslavs Isajevs and backup goalkeeper Robers Ozols at present due to injury, while Marko Regza has been dropped after not featuring in either game last month, despite being the reigning Virsliga Golden Boot holder.
Three of Latvia starting XI against North Macedonia featured in RFS's impressive draw with Galatasaray in the Europa League last week, including striker Janis Ikaunieks, who got on the scoresheet against the Turkish champions.
Faroe Islands possible starting lineup:
Reynatrod; Benjaminsen, Faero, Edmundsson, Davidsen; Olsen, S. Vatnhamar, G. Vatnhamar, Sorensen, Agnarsson; Edmundsson
Latvia possible starting lineup:
Matrevics; Jurkovskis, Balodis, Tobers; Savalnieks, Zelenkovs, Savaljevs, Varslavans, Ciganiks; Gutkovskis, Ikaunieks
We say: Faroe Islands 1-0 Latvia
Knowing that a draw or worse will most likely condemn them to relegation, the Faroes will be well aware of the importance of this one, and their good recent home form suggests they are capable of finding a first win of the campaign.
Latvia have already beaten the hosts in this section, but have been well off it in their other two games, especially on Thursday, and they could well be narrowly edged out here.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Andrew Delaney
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