We said: Armenia 2-1 Latvia
While neither side have been particularly strong of late, Armenia have at least demonstrated a good ability to find the back of the net in recent matches.
Additionally, Latvia have been poor away from home, and it would not be a surprise if they lost once again.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Armenia win with a probability of 64.58%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Latvia had a probability of 13.89%.
The most likely scoreline for an Armenia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.97%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.11%), while for a Latvia win it was 0-1 (5.39%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Armenia would win this match.