For a second successive campaign, FC Cincinnati and the New York Red Bulls will meet in the opening round of the MLS Cup playoffs, with the first game of that best-of-three series taking place at TQL Stadium on Sunday.
A 5-2 victory over Charlotte FC in the Wild card round sent the Red Bulls into the next stage, while the Supporters' Shield winners played Atlanta United to a 2-2 draw in their final regular season encounter of 2023.
Match preview
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They claimed their first-ever trophy since entering Major League Soccer this year, but Cincinnati have work to do if they are to follow in the footsteps of Los Angeles FC and lift the MLS Cup as Supporters' Shield winners.
The sophomore campaign for Pat Noonan as manager was even more memorable than his first one, as the Orange and Blue claimed an MLS club record 69 points in 2023, just four fewer than the all-time single-season league record set by the New England Revolution in 2021.
With 20 victories during the 2023 regular season, Cincy have won as many MLS games this year as they had combined in their previous three regular seasons.
Sunday will be the first time they host an MLS playoff fixture, and this team were nearly perfect at TQL Stadium during the recent domestic campaign, winning 13 of their 17 matches played in Cincinnati while suffering only two defeats.
Since exiting the Leagues Cup semi-finals in August, the Orange and Blue have been getting things done the hard way, conceding first in six of their last 10 MLS affairs but managing to come away with at least a point in four of those instances.
Cincy won 14 regular season encounters this year by a single goal, while posting eight clean sheets on home soil.
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The road to the playoffs in New Jersey has been much bumpier than any of their previous experiences, but when called upon, the Red Bulls have come through.
Troy Lesesne's men were minutes away from seeing a 13-year playoff run end on Decision Day, but they made the most of their second chance this week, going up 3-0 at half time and cruising to a comfortable victory against the Crown.
The kind of offensive output this team displayed versus Charlotte has been a rarity for them domestically all season, as New York notched a goal or fewer in 14 of their opening 16 league fixtures, though they have found the back of the net in four straight MLS contests, including eight goals in their last two matches played at Red Bull Arena.
Sunday will be their first post-season match away from home since 2021 and the Red Bulls have lost five successive playoff contests on the road, with the previous victory coming at Toronto during the 2017 Eastern Conference Semi-finals, winning that match 1-0 but losing the tie on away goals.
New York have been eliminated in three of their last four First Round playoff games when netting first, including last year versus Cincinnati when they conceded twice in the final 16 minutes, losing 2-1.
They have never lost in three previous visits to TQL Stadium, defeating the Orange and Blue there earlier this month by a 2-1 score.
Team News
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Santiago Arias and London Aghedo are questionable for the Orange and Blue this weekend because of leg injuries, while Stiven Jimenez is unlikely to see the field as he has a lower leg fracture.
Last Saturday, Alvaro Barreal became the first player in club history to appear in all 34 matches of a single regular season, Dominique Badji surpassed 12,000 career minutes in MLS regular-season play while also scoring the 200th goal in the history of this franchise, and leading MVP candidate Luciano Acosta notched the equaliser, marking the seventh time this year that he has collected a goal and an assist in one game.
A 74th-minute penalty from Acosta in their playoff encounter with the Red Bulls last year put Cincy on level terms before Brandon Vazquez scored the winner four minutes before the 90.
On Wednesday, the Red Bulls were without Hassan Ndam because of an issue in his thigh, Cory Burke was sidelined with a groin strain, Dante Vanzeir did not feature due to back spasms, while Lewis Morgan missed another encounter with a hip injury.
A hat-trick from Elias Manoel gave the Red Bulls a massive boost in their match with Charlotte this week, John Tolkin netted for the second successive encounter after his penalty got them into the playoffs on Decision Day, while Tom Barlow scored for the second time in his last three games.
In their previous visit to Cincinnati this season, Manoel and Frankie Amaya scored within the opening 17 minutes of play, while Carlos Coronel stopped four of the five shots that he faced to preserve the victory.
FC Cincinnati possible starting lineup:
Celentano; Mosquera, Hagglund, Gaddis; Powell, Nwobodo, Kubo, Barreal; Acosta; Vazquez, Santos
New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Coronel; Duncan, Reyes, S. Nealis, Tolkin; Fernandez, Edelman, Amaya, Luquinhas; Ngoma; Manoel
We say: FC Cincinnati 2-0 New York Red Bulls
Given FC Cincinnati's firepower, we do not believe the Red Bulls will be nearly as aggressive on Sunday as they were against Charlotte earlier this week.
The Red Bulls' strength still lies in their defensive shape, but the Orange and Blue know how to win close encounters, and we expect them to eventually break through this weekend.
How to watch
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Joel Lefevre
