The 2024 Leagues Cup campaign begins on Thursday for FC Cincinnati as they host Queretaro in the East 1 group from TQL Stadium.
Cincy were beaten 3-1 by the New York Red Bulls in their previous MLS encounter, while Queretaro lost their opening match at this tournament, 4-3 on penalties versus New York City FC.
Match preview
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Weeks after gaining control of the Supporters' Shield, Cincinnati have relinquished their hold on that trophy, with three consecutive MLS defeats.
Pat Noonan's men are second in the Eastern Conference with 48 points, five fewer than Inter Miami with nine regular-season matches remaining.
So far in 2024, the Orange and Blue have suffered five defeats at TQL Stadium in league play, two more than they had in the entire 2023 regular season.
In 2024, they have only suffered one defeat away from home during league play when scoring the opening goal (2-1 to the New York Red Bulls in April), while they have won two encounters when conceding first.
The Orange and Blue have never lost a Leagues Cup contest at TQL Stadium within 90 minutes, though they were eliminated in the round of 32 last year on penalties by Nashville SC (5-4).
They have a 100% record against sides from Liga MX in this competition, defeating Guadalajara (Chivas) by a 3-1 score in 2021 and 2022.
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A season that has been rough from the get-go for Queretaro saw them suffer another cruel fate on Sunday as they lost on penalties despite playing to a 0-0 draw after 90 minutes.
Mauro Gerk is struggling to find solutions, with his side currently on a nine-match winless run across all competitions.
Another loss on Thursday would knock them out of the Leagues Cup for the first time and ensure they end this tournament without a point, which would also be a first.
Looking back to the group phase last year could perhaps give them some extra motivation for this encounter, as Los Albiazules followed up a 5-1 loss to the Philadelphia Union in 2023 by defeating Tijuana 1-0 and advancing into the knockout stage.
Not since matchday 15 of the 2024 Clausura campaign have we seen them draw first blood and win, while they have won all of their competitive games this year when netting multiple times.
Their only victory against an American opponent in normal time occurred during the 2016 CONCACAF Champions Cup quarter-finals when they defeated DC United 2-0 at home and went on to win that tie, 3-1 on aggregate.
Team News
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On Thursday, Cincinnati could be missing Alec Kann due to a sore hip, while Malik Pinto has an ankle problem, Nick Hagglund is dealing with a leg injury and Matt Miazga will not return this season for that same reason.
Despite a minor toe injury, reigning league MVP Luciano Acosta featured off the substitutes bench against the Red Bulls in their last match, while Miles Robinson is with the US national team at the Olympics.
Corey Baird had the only goal for Cincy when they battled New York in their previous encounter, his second of the 2024 MLS campaign.
Rubio Rubin, who previously sustained a knock while on loan with Queretaro, was available as a substitute but did not feature against NYCFC.
From their matchday four defeat to Monterrey to their shootout loss against the Pigeons, Gerk added six newcomers to the starting 11, including Franco Russo, Jonathan Perlaza, Kevin Escamilla, Alan Medina, Ayrton Preciado and Ake Loba.
Escamilla and Ronaldo Cisneros missed their penalty kicks, though they still collected a single point, their first ever at this tournament.
FC Cincinnati possible starting lineup:
Louro; Yedlin, Murphy, Keller; Kubo, Nwobodo, Bucha, Orellano; Acosta; Kelsy, Boupendza
Queretaro possible starting lineup:
Allison; Vazquez, Rio, Oritz, Perlaza; Escamilla, Lertora; Medina, Rodriguez, Sosa; Loba
We say: FC Cincinnati 1-0 Queretaro
Despite being a little short-handed at the back, Cincinnati still have enough to outlast a stubborn Queretaro side, who could have difficulty containing the quality and creativity of Acosta.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Cincinnati win with a probability of 63.31%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Queretaro had a probability of 16.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Cincinnati win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.79%) and 1-0 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.23%), while for a Queretaro win it was 1-2 (4.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-0 win for FC Cincinnati in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for FC Cincinnati.
