FC Utrecht and Go Ahead Eagles square off on Sunday evening as they bid to secure a spot in Europe for 2024-25.
Both teams came from behind to prevail in their respective European competition playoff semi-finals to set up this clash at Stadion Galgenwaard.
Match preview
Since after the October international break, FC Utrecht have been one of the best teams in the Eredivisie, yet they have still needed to battle hard to reach this point.
Ending the regular campaign with just one win in four outings lead to a seventh-placed finish when fifth was within their grasp, leaving them with a tie against Sparta Rotterdam to keep their European qualification hopes alive.
When going behind in the 38th minute, Ron Jans may have been concerned regarding how the last-four tie was panning out, but Ryan Flamingo's equaliser three minutes later settled the nerves.
Utrecht would proceed to score twice in the closing 20 minutes to seal a 3-1 victory at Stadion Galgenwaard, setting up a home fixture for the final.
Jans's side ended the regular campaign having accumulated 29 points from their 17 home contests - the sixth-best return in the division.
Go Ahead Eagles were also able to put together a respectable away record, picking up 21 points from 17 outings to conclude the campaign with the ninth-best return on their travels.
However, Rene Hake's team have lost much momentum from their efforts earlier in the season, going on a run of just one win from nine outings.
Nevertheless, recording a 2-1 win at FC Volendam on the final day got them back on track, before they upset the odds at NEC Nijmegen.
Trailing 1-0 heading into the final 15 minutes, goals from Finn Stokkers and Philippe Rommens turned things around for Go Ahead Eagles to leave them on the brink of a rare appearance on the continent.
Team News
Mike van der Hoorn was introduced as a second-half substitute against Sparta and played his part in securing the win in that fixture.
Jans must now decide whether to recall the defender in place of midfielder Zidane Iqbal, depending on what formation he opts for.
Victor Jensen netted as a substitute having replaced Othmane Boussaid, giving Jans another selection dilemma.
Stokkers replaced the injured Bobby Adekanye after 70 minutes in midweek and that alteration could be made from the start here.
That would potentially see Victor Edvardsen move out to the flank in what may prove to be the only change.
Go Ahead Eagles possible starting lineup:
Barkas; Ter Avest, Flamingo, Viergever, El Karouani; Bozdogan, Iqbal; Booth, Toornstra, Boussaid; Lammers
FC Utrecht possible starting lineup:
De Lange; Deijl, Nauber, Kramer, Kuipers; Rommens, Linthorst; Edvardsen, Tengstedt, Breum; Stokkers
We say: FC Utrecht 2-1 Go Ahead Eagles
Given the manner of both of their respective victories earlier in the week, momentum has been built ahead of this contest. However, we feel that Utrecht may make the most of home advantage to seal their spot in the Europa Conference League qualifying rounds.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Utrecht win with a probability of 53.56%. A win for Go Ahead Eagles had a probability of 24.1% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Utrecht win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.48%) and 2-0 (8.06%). The likeliest Go Ahead Eagles win was 1-2 (6.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.24%).
