Two teams struggling towards the bottom of the La Liga table will lock horns for a key contest on Monday evening, as Granada welcome Cadiz to Estadio Nuevo Los Carmenes.
Granada, who have lost their last five league games, are currently 17th in Spain's top flight, four points above 18th-placed Cadiz, which is an indication of the importance of the contest in Andalusia.
Match preview
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Granada recovered from a poor start to the season by impressing in the latter stages of 2021, but the team's recent form has been concerning and has seen them drop back towards the relegation zone at a key stage of the season.
Indeed, Robert Moreno's side have lost each of their last five league games, including a 4-1 defeat at home to Villarreal last weekend, which has left them in 17th spot in the table, just four points above 18th-placed Cadiz and 19th-placed Alaves ahead of this weekend's action.
Granada have not actually won in Spain's top flight since a 2-1 success over Atletico Madrid on December 12, while they have scored just once in their last four league fixtures.
The Andalusian side have finished seventh and ninth in La Liga since returning to this level, but they are some way from the top half of the division this term and are instead battling for their lives towards the bottom.
Granada have picked up 15 points from their 12 home league matches this term, and they will be welcoming a Cadiz outfit that have collected 12 points from 12 away matches, which is the 12th-best record in the division.
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Cadiz, meanwhile, have drawn their last two league matches against Celta Vigo and Getafe, but they are still in the relegation zone, sitting 18th, four points behind 17th-placed Granada ahead of kickoff here.
The Yellow Submarine were so impressive on their return to the top flight last term, claiming 12th spot, but they have found it more difficult this season, winning three, drawing 11 and losing 11 of their 25 matches.
Cadiz, as mentioned, have been relatively strong on their travels this term, with the bulk of their problems coming in front of their own fans, collecting just eight points from 13 matches, failing to win in the process.
Sergio Gonzalez's side will certainly believe that they have enough quality to escape the bottom three in the coming weeks, but this is a huge match in the context of their season, and the Andalusian team recorded a 1-0 victory in the corresponding match at Granada last season.
The Pirates are bidding to make it back-to-back seasons at this level of football for the first time since 1993, but they have only managed to win once in the league since the start of November.
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Team News
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Granada will be missing Neyder Lozano, Santiago Arias and Maxime Gonalons on Monday through injury, while Sergio Escudero is an injury doubt for the home side.
Head coach Moreno is expected to resist the temptation to make wholesale changes to the side that started against Villarreal, with Luis Suarez and Jorge Molina again set to operate in the final third of the field.
Gonalons's absence will open the door for Alex Collado to feature in a midfield area, while Antonio Puertas and Carlos Neva should retain their spots in the starting side.
As for Cadiz, Alfonso Espino will miss the match through suspension, while Tomas Alarcon is an injury doubt, but the visitors are otherwise in good shape heading into the contest.
Anthony Lozano and Alvaro Negredo are again expected to play as a front two on Monday evening, with Lucas Perez operating in the number 10 position.
The Yellow Submarine should again keep faith with a back three, but Espino's absence, courtesy of his yellow card against Getafe, will open the door for Santiago Arzamendia to feature as the left-sided wing-back.
Granada possible starting lineup:
Maximiano; Quini, Sanchez, Diaz, Neva; Puertas, Milla, Montoro, Collado; Suarez, Molina
Cadiz possible starting lineup:
Ledesma; Chust, Fali, Hernandez; Akapo, Emeterio, Idrissi, Arzamendia; Perez; Negredo, Lozano
We say: Granada 1-1 Cadiz
Two of the last three top-flight meetings between these two sides have finished level, including a 1-1 draw in the reverse match earlier this season, and we are finding it really difficult to separate them here, ultimately settling on a low-scoring draw on Monday night.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Granada win with a probability of 40.35%. A win for Cadiz had a probability of 33.07% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Granada win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.55%) and 2-0 (7.13%). The likeliest Cadiz win was 0-1 (9.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.63%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
