The opening round of the MLS Cup playoffs will commence on Friday as Inter Miami welcome Atlanta United to Chase Stadium in match one of that best-of-three series.
In the wild-card round, the Five Stripes defeated CF Montreal on penalties to advance into the next stage after that match ended tied at two, while Miami claimed the Supporters' Shield, winning their final encounter of the regular season, 6-2, over the New England Revolution.
Match preview
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In 2024, we witnessed the greatest regular season in MLS history, with Inter Miami setting the points record in style, destroying the previous holders of that record on Decision Day.
Now is where the real season begins, though, and the Herons are heading into this encounter on quite the roll, unbeaten in nine successive domestic fixtures, with their last three matches being victories.
Their 79 goals scored in the regular season were the most of any team in the league this year, while they won 22 games, two short of the all-time record set by DC United and the Los Angeles Galaxy in 1998.
Friday will be the first-ever playoff game for the Herons at home as they seek their first-ever post-season triumph since joining MLS in 2020.
Miami won 11 home fixtures domestically in 2024, going unbeaten in their final eight matches of the MLS campaign at Chase Stadium.
During the 2024 regular season, Tata Martino's men won nine times when they conceded the opening goal, collecting 27 points as a result.
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Given little chance to even make the playoffs a week ago, Atlanta United beat the odds and are still alive in the quest for a second MLS Cup.
Rob Valentino's side took a 2-0 lead into the interval at Montreal on Tuesday, and despite letting that lead slip away in half number two, they kept their composure in the shootout.
They now have a mountainous task to try to upset this talented Miami squad, but they head into this encounter with plenty of momentum.
The Five Stripes are undefeated in their last three matches played against MLS opponents, netting multiple times on each of those occasions.
You have to go back to 2019 for the last time they won an MLS playoff round, making the Eastern Conference Final that year while losing three of their previous four post-season fixtures since then.
During the regular season, Atlanta won just four times away from home, but two of those victories came in Florida, including a 3-1 win versus Inter Miami at Chase Stadium in May.
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Team News
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On Decision Day, the Herons were missing David Ruiz with a right hamstring strain, David Martinez was sidelined due to a right adductor problem, CJ dos Santos sat out with a sore hand and Lawson Sunderland was an unused substitute, having recently recovered from a hamstring issue.
Leo Afonso sat out because of a sore groin, while Nicolas Freire and Facundo Farias were both unavailable with ACL injuries.
Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez finished the regular season with a team-leading 20 goals each, as the former netted a hat-trick last Saturday and the latter notched a brace, while Benjamin Cremaschi had the other strike for Miami.
In their wild-card showdown with Le CFM, Atlanta did not have Edwin Mosquera at their disposal due to a sore knee, while Quentin Westberg was unavailable because of a head injury.
One change was made to the Atlanta United starting 11 on Tuesday, with Ronald Hernandez coming into the fold in place of Tyler Wolff.
Goals from Brooks Lennon and Stian Rode Gregersen gave them a 2-0 lead, though it was Brad Guzan's heroics in the shootout that enabled them to advance as he stopped Tom Pearce from 12 yards away, the only miss by either side.
Inter Miami possible starting lineup:
Callender; Weigandt, Aviles, Kryvtsov, Alba; Gomez, Busquets, Rojas; Gressel, Suarez, Messi
Atlanta United possible starting lineup:
Guzan; Hernandez, Rode Gregersen, Williams, Amador; Slisz, Fortune; Lennon, Miranchuk, Lobzhanidze; Thiare
We say: Inter Miami 3-1 Atlanta United
Although the Five Stripes have had their share of success against Miami this season, the Herons are loaded with experienced guys who have won at every level and still have the talent to make a long run, so we do not anticipate they will slip up on Friday.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Miami win with a probability of 58.87%. A win for Atlanta United had a probability of 21.07% and a draw had a probability of 20.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Inter Miami win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.6%) and 3-1 (7.05%). The likeliest Atlanta United win was 1-2 (5.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Inter Miami in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Inter Miami.
